NFL Tips | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | 4th December 2015


LOUIS Ross (@LouisRoss67) is back in the hotseat for the Thursday night NFL game between Green Bay and Detroit.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Friday 01:25 | Sky Sports 1

Just six weeks ago the outcome of this contest would have been in absolutely no doubt. That was then. Green Bay were having a comfortable start to the season, Detroit were in a mess and starting the process that would lead to the dismissal of most of the front office and some key coaches. It worked for them in a big way.

Five wins in their last six games including a first win in Green Bay since 1991. That's a pretty astounding turnaround and is mostly down to the improved play of Matthew Stafford.

That is in turn due to the huge improvement in his Offensive Line. That degree of improvement is almost the polar opposite of what has happened to the Packers in that time. Just one win in five including that first loss in 24 years at home to Detroit and another on Thanksgiving at home to the Bears. Yup, the Bears.

It's fairly easy for most of us to see where the problems lay for Aaron Rodgers. His receivers keep dropping balls. Oh and losing Jordy Nelson before the season even started. Should be a simple thing to put right but this has been happening for most of the season.

I thought the Pack were one of the favourites pre-season but in truth there has never been a point where they have hit the heights of recent years. The defence has not really fired at any point, Eddie Lacy has been sporadic and Rodgers offensive line is not giving him the time to R-E-L-A-X.

This is one of those few games where I think the oddsmakers have it wrong and this is being priced on name and reputation. Those guys are paid to get this right and I wouldn't pretend to know as much as they clearly do. However, just last Thursday they were massively wrong about Carolina remaining unbeaten in Dallas. I believe they are wrong here. Detroit is the 13/10 underdog and I believe that is huge value.

Let's be honest, at first glance we would all think Green Bay here and they can absolutely get it back and perform like we expect them to but Detroit are nailing it right now.

Stafford threw for over 330 yards and five touchdowns last week. Calvin Johnson was very much Megatron once again. I don't have any doubt in Detroit's chances tonight.

I honestly cannot see Green Bays Receivers suddenly making the ball stick. I'm looking for a couple more TDs from Megatron and Theo Riddick has a Receiving Line of just 34.5 yards after 62 and a TD last week. I like that line a lot. He's very difficult to bring down after the catch.

Best Bets

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions – Detroit Lions to win (13/10 BetVictor)

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions – Theo Riddick Over 34.5 Yards (10/11 Paddy Power)

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About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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