NFL Tips | 10th January 2016


AFTER a lovely double on Saturday night Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) returns with more NFL play-off bets.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings | Sunday 18:05

Pittsburgh last night snuck through to next week's Divisional Round and so our 66/1 shot of a Pittsburgh-Seattle Superbowl is still alive and I very much hope it will be after this game.

The loss of Marshawn Lynch has thrown a little spanner in the works. Beast Mode was expected to be back tonight but the Seahawks are not taking any risks. There will be tougher games than this if they are to reach a third successive trip to the biggest sporting event on the planet.

Why so confident in the third road team win of the weekend? Well, I can give you any number of reasons. Lets go back to last month and the last time Russel Wilson and his ‘Hawks rolled into town. They left with a 38-7 victory and a Minnesota offensive line that is still having nightmares.

Yes, they have had the odd blip on the way to a 10-6 record but finished week 17 by taking apart the previously imperious Cardinals 36-6 in Arizona.

Up against a Vikings team that will need to establish the run early with the current best running back in football present, Adrian Peterson. Teddy Bridgewater is an ever improving quarterback but his downfield options are limited to Steffon Diggs and occasionally screens to the tight end Kyle Rudolph.

The Vikings are far from one dimensional, surprisingly they do not rely as heavily on Peterson as you may think but here they face a Seattle team that for the fourth year running has allowed the least amount of points in the entire NFL.

I really like this Vikings roster. There is a lot to like about Bridgewater and this is a team that could take hold of the NFC North next year. There are three key defensive players back in the Minnesota lineup tonight that missed the December defeat but that is unlikely to do anything but keep the score down.

I just cannot see anyway of the offence putting points on this stellar Seattle defence. It is Seattle all the way and I think they comfortably cover here.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins | Sunday 21:40

The last of the four wild card games and I am hoping the first home win. I really never imagined that I would be writing up a piece that started by saying clearly that Kirk Cousins is the key to this game. Not only that, but I cannot see any way Green Bay can win. You and I will both wake up soon and realise this has all been a terrible dream.

After all, who would have imagined that in the second half of this season, Cousins would rank as the number one quarterback in the country and Aaron Rodgers 32nd.

That is the kind of stat that would normally signal the end of the world. It is all true though. Washington won five of its last six games to see off an incredibly poor NFC East. Cousins threw 23 TDs and just three interceptions during that period.

Playing at FedEx Field has been where the ‘Skins have done most damage this year. A 6-1 record is something to be proud of. In those seven games, there have been 15 Touchdowns thrown and ZERO interceptions from Cousins.

Remember this is a guy who was second choice until the eve of the season when Washington took the massively brave decision to ditch Number 1 draft pick Robert Griffin III and his huge salary and instead go with a guy who seemed at best an adequate back-up.

For the fourth time this weekend, I find myself only really writing about one team. I really cannot find much positive to write about a Packers squad that I thought, way back in September, could win everything.

The loss of Jordy Nelson before the season even started was bad but it is a combination of pretty much the worst offensive line in the game and Rodgers himself that has affected their season most.

Would you believe that Rodgers has taken the second most Sacks of all NFL quarterbacks. He has gone down 13 times in the last two weeks alone.

Eddie Lacy appears to be having a year off and James Starks has issues with ball security. When Rodgers does manage to step back and throw, his receivers cannot hang onto the thing. Yes, James Jones and Randall Cobb, I'm looking at you.

Contrast that to what Cousins has right now. Jordan Reed is doing everything you want from a pass catching tight end, Pierre Garcon is ever reliable and DeSean Jackson always offers the possibility of an 80 yard catch and run. I am all over Washington for this one.

Best Bets

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings – Seattle Seahawks -4.5 (Evens Bet365)

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins – Washington Redskins – 1 (20/21 Bet365)

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About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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