NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets in the ante-post Over/Under markets ahead of 2020/21.
NFL 2020/21: Team Over/Under
Prior to the start of the season, every team has an Over/Under line set for total wins on the year through the regular season. For reference, the lines are always set at 0.5, so a bet can never be a push. I’ve taken a detailed approach to this, and assessed my picks game-by-game, as well as their rosters and strength of schedule.
Washington Under 5.5 Wins (4/7 SkyBet)
Up first is the Washington Football Team. Now without beating around the bush, they are probably straight up the worst team in football.
For a side that’s won just three games last year, and addition of star defensive end Chase Young definitely isn’t worthy of three more wins than last season, as their line is set at 5.5. They’re in a complete rebuild mode, have just cut two running backs in Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson and have one of the thinnest receiving corps in the league.
Add that to their poor play at quarterback and weak defensive unit, there is not a chance they’re getting to six wins with a schedule that includes the 49ers, Seahawks, Steelers, Ravens, Cowboys x2, Eagles x2, and the improving Cardinals, Lions and Browns.
My predictions have them going 2-14.
New York Jets Under 6.5 Wins (5/6 SkyBet)
Next up is the New York Jets. Another team I’m extremely low on coming into this season. Along with Washington and the Jaguars, the Jets look set for a rough season.
Now whilst they finished 7-9 last season, they’ve unquestionably gone backwards this summer. Although they did strengthen their offensive line with the addition of Mekhi Becton, it’s fair they’re still some way behind most teams in terms of talent.
Le’Veon Bell wasn’t the star they hoped he would be last year, and although Sam Darnold should develop to be a solid quarterback, he’s still some way off having the weapons he needs to excel. Add all this to a weak defensive unit, who’ve lost their two leaders in Jamal Adams and C.J Mosley, things aren’t looking so rosy in New York right now.
So although they have a favourable schedule and a few winnable games, I think having the line at 6.5 and favouring them to win the same amount as last year is ambitious to say the least. Take the under all day long.
Green Bay Packers Over 8.5 Wins (8/11 SkyBet)
Onto a couple of teams, I have a little more ambition for this season now. Those are the Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers.
For the life of me I can quite work out how the Packers line has been set at what it currently is after such a successful season last year. Following a 13-win campaign and trip to the NFC Championship game, Green Bay’s line has been set down at 8.5, so we just need them to get to nine wins.
Now they did get completely blown out by the 49ers on more than one occasion and also won a lot of one possession games, which on another day could have gone the other way, but they’re still a very talented team. Having a much improved defence last year served them well.
Fronted by the additions of the Smith brothers and improvement in the secondary, they took massive leaps forward just a season ago. According to Pro Football, the Packers have the fourth-highest rank offensive line in football, and it showed last year with the protection of Aaron Rodgers.
They do have a few tough games against the Saints, Buccs, Eagles and 49ers again, but in a division where they play the Bears and Lions twice, as well as the Panthers and Jaguars, take a punt on them to reach that nine-game target by the time Week 14 rolls round.
Buffalo Bills Over 8.5 Wins (4/6 SkyBet)
Finally, onto Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. They certainly surprised a fair few amongst us last season, en-route to a 10-6 record. Their play on the defensive side of the ball was outstanding and Josh Allen really came into his own down the stretch.
They’ve managed to add strength to the roster this offseason, to make an even stronger push towards their attempts to dethrone the Patriots for the division title.
After allowing the fourth-fewest total yards last season, the defence only got stronger this summer, with the additions of veterans Josh Norman and Mario Addison. With one of, if not the best secondary in the entire league, teams will certainly know they’re in for a tough matchup when facing off against Buffalo.
Switching over to the offensive side, quarterback Josh Allen really took strides forward in his development last season, and with the addition of Stefon Diggs, he certainly now has a different dimension to his receiving corps.
Now my personal prediction has the Bills going 11-5, with six of those wins coming from within their own division. Their line of 8.5 seems a bit low given how they’ve added to their roster over the summer. So take the over and be happy with the line.
An 18/1 accumulator for interest
For those looking to combine a few of these together, I managed to get one priced up (with a few additions) by SkyBet, that I have really high hopes for. So combine the four I’ve just gone through. Add in both the Giants and Bengals under for their selected lines, and boom, we’ve found ourselves a nicely priced Request-A-Bet at 18/1.
The Giants went 4-12 last year, and in a division with the Eagles and the Cowboys, as well as matchups with the Steelers, 49ers, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Ravens. Given the numerous holes they still have on their roster, it’ll take a lot more than just having Saquon Barkley to get to 7+ wins.
As for the Bengals. Rookie quarterback. No preseason. Weak defensive unit. After finishing 2-14 last year, I’m not sure Joe Burrow is getting them to six wins in such a tough division.