PREMIER LEAGUE expert Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) previews Super Sunday's showdown between Newcastle and Wolves from St James' Park.
Newcastle v Wolves | Sunday 9th December 2018, 16:00 | Sky Sports
Sky Sports are billing this game as ‘Super Sunday’ but I wouldn’t be shocked if this game sees the lowest viewing figure of any Premier League game this season. That said, it doesn’t mean there isn’t a betting opportunity!
Despite the fact that Newcastle are just three points clear of safety, I never really consider them to be relegation candidates. While home defeats against Leicester, Brighton and West Ham would concern me if I was a fan of the north east side, I simply back Rafa Benitez to win a sufficient number of tight matches.
Since the Spaniard took Newcastle back in to the Premier League, they have won 15 matches, with 12 of these being by a single goal. Six of these victories have been 1-0 and that is the most likely scoreline – either way – in my view here.
Under Rafa’s leadership, since their return to the promised land they have had 18 home games against sides in their peer group (anyone from seventh down), with eight having seen one goal or fewer.
Under 1.5 goals is 2/1 with Betfair and that looks far too big in my opinion given Wolves’ results since they joined the top-flight. Three of the Wolves’ seven away matches have seen this bet emerge victorious. Moreover, if you exclude their results against the Big Six, four of their 10 games have also seen one goal or fewer.
I simply cannot see either side scoring two goals. Even if you ignore their results against the aforementioned half dozen, Newcastle have only managed to score two goals or more in two of their 10 games this season and Wolves’ record is identical (and they haven’t scored two goals in any away Premier League game this season).
Rather than backing Under 2.5 Goals, which I can only see getting beat by some freakish goals, I would rather be on the 1-1 at 11/2 with BetVictor, alongside the Under 1.5 pick.
Wolves have drawn in this manner in two of their seven away games this season and in a tight game this is worth a few pennies. Make this stake a third of what you would back on Under 1.5 Goals.
I don’t see many goals in either side and both sides strikers have scored in this week, so it is also worth at looking at the best price available on 1-0 Salomon Rondon and 1-0 Raul Jimenez.