DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) is back to share his betting thoughts on Super Sunday's showdown between Newcastle and Wolves.
Newcastle v Wolves | Sunday 27th October 2019, 14:00 | Sky Sports
It hardly promises to be a Sunday afternoon thriller at St. James Park when Newcastle take on Wolves. These are the two most shot-shy sides in the division, both managing around nine a game. Wolves have had 24 shots on target across those games, four more than the North East side, so it unsurprising that I am going to oppose goals here.
Newcastle have managed just five goals so far this season, but the underlying stats do not suggest they’ve been unfortunate. In their defence, they have already faced Arsenal, Tottenham, Manchester United, Chelsea, Leicester and Liverpool and having gained six points from those six games some may feel that they have not had too bad a start.
However, in their other three games, at home to Watford and Brighton and Norwich, they’ve managed just two goals and two points and performance data does not suggest they deserve any more.
Newcastle are yet to score more than a single goal in a game this season and I struggle to see any evidence of that changing here. Their opponents, Wolves, have been less impressive than they were last season but still have a win away at Manchester City to their name. The West Midlands side did play in Bratislava on Thursday and there are concerns about what the Europa League campaign could do for their league aspirations.
I expect Wolves to finish in a mid-table position, which will be several places above Newcastle, so I can see why they are marginal favourites here. However, I think the best angle is to oppose goals.
Both Teams To Score has landed in just three of Newcastle’s nine games this season – 3-1 defeats at Liverpool and Norwich and a 1-1 home draw with Watford – while their four home games have featured just four goals. BTTS had landed in six of Wolves’ matches, but four of those encounters have finished 1-1, so I want to keep that scoreline on side.
My best angle of attack is therefore to take Betfair’s 7/4 on Under 1.5 Goals and dutch it with the 11/2 Bet365 are offering on the 1-1 scoreline. If you have 70% of your stake on under 1.5 and the remainder on the correct score you are getting around 10/11 on this price. Such bets have landed in 14 of the 18 combined games they’ve played, which suggests we are getting a lot of value.