National League: Value-spotting at the Racecourse Ground


NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday afternoon's National League coupon.

Aldershot v Eastleigh | Saturday 9th February 2019, 15:00

Aldershot cost me a fortnight ago when they picked up a draw against Dagenham & Redbridge; that result means the Hampshire-based club are now 15 games without a win and they have failed to score in nine of those encounters.

The Shots reached the play-offs last season, but this time out they look like they could be heading out of the division in the opposite direction. They sit 22nd at the moment and are the lowest scoring team in the league.

Gary Waddock's men have now failed to score in their last five home league matches, which isn't ideal when they face play-off chasing Eastleigh next.

As already mentioned, Eastleigh will be aiming for a top-seven finish and a shot at the play-offs. The Spitfires currently sit just two points and two places behind Gateshead, who currently occupy that seventh spot.

Eastleigh come into this game in decent form having won three of their last four, they have lost just four of their last 22 matches in the league also, so won't have any worries making the short journey to take on their opponents here.

Marathon are going 10/11 for Eastleigh in the Draw No Bet market and that looks good value.

Maidstone v AFC Fylde | Saturday 9th February 2019, 15:00

Maidstone are another team that are struggling at the wrong end of the table, sitting in 23rd, six points from safety and with the worst goal difference in the division. Only three teams have scored more goals than Maidstone and only two conceded more often.

The Stones have lost three on the bounce in the league, conceding 10 goals in the process and I think they could be in for a long afternoon here. The Kent-based club particularly struggle at their home, The Gallagher Stadium, where they have picked up just six points all season.

After a slow start to the season AFC Fylde are starting to look like they could challenge for the title. The Coasters are four places and four points off league leaders Leyton Orient.

Danny Rowe is in excellent form again this season, netting 21 times already and leading the goalscoring charts and he will be relishing coming up against such a leaky defence.

I'm heading to the Asian Handicap market here and backing AFC Fylde -0.75 at 24/25 with Marathon.

Wrexham v Dagenham & Redbridge | Saturday 9th February 2019, 15:00

I really can't get my head round the price of Under 2.5 Goals in this match.

Wrexham are excellent defensively, conceding the joint-fewest goals in the league so far this season – their main problem is at the other end of the pitch though where they tend not to score many either. The Welsh side’s last seven matches have produced just 10 goals with four of the games featuring Under 1.5 Goals.

The Dragons have had a change of manager this week with Bryan Hughes replacing Graham Barrow but I can't see the inexperienced Hughes making a significant change to the way Wrexham perform with just a few days to work with them.

Going further back, taking the Unders would have landed in 21 of their last 26 matches in all competitions, two of the games that went Over came in cup competitions against opponents from different leagues.

Away from home the Daggers don't see many high scoring games either, 10 of the last 14 matches have ended with fewer than three goals on the road.

Peter Taylor’s men have been excellent on their travels recently, winning six of their last nine. Two of those defeats coming at the hands of the league’s first and second-placed teams. Dagenham have also managed to shut out their opponents in four of those fixtures.

SkyBet are generously offering even-money on this game to finish with fewer than three goals – that looks the best bet in the National League, for me, this weekend.

I'm also going to be backing Dagenham to win and Under 2.5 Goals at a tasty 9/1 with BetBright at the Racecourse Ground on Saturday.

Best Bets

Aldershot v Eastleigh – Eastleigh draw no bet (10/11 Marathon)

Maidstone vs AFC Fylde – AFC Fylde -0.75 Asian Handicap (24/25 Marathon)

Wrexham v Dagenham & Redbridge – Under 2.5 Goals (1/1 SkyBet)

Wrexham v Dagenham & Redbridge – Dagenham & Redbridge to win and Under 2.5 Goals (9/1 BetBright)

About Author

I first got the taste for betting when I was quite young, every year I would pick a horse for the Grand National and my Dad would go to the bookies and put my £1 each way bet on. As soon as I could get away with it I was in the bookies every Saturday afternoon searching the football coupons and putting on stupidly big accas. Now enjoy betting mainly singles or small multiples, usually sticking to the English leagues. I don't favour any particular market, but rarely watch a game without having small first scorer bet for a bit of fun. I've got 3 boys which take up most of my time, but luckily they enjoy going to watch football and days at the races. I'm a life long Grimsby Town fan, one of a few that has seen some ups as well as all the downs.

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