National League Tips | 28th March 2016


NON-LEAGUE expert Callum Jones (@Goaldust) was bang on the money for Good Friday. Can he repeat the feat on Easter Monday with his National League NAP?

Aldershot v Braintree | Easter Monday 15.00

I was challenged by a few on Good Friday when putting up Braintree as my NAP, and with just cause – the Iron have been dealing with a number of injuries, particularly to their forward unit.

But they did what they've been doing all season – keeping it tight at the back and nicking a goal or two down the other end.

They bagged their 21st home league goal of the season against Bromley and Danny Cowley’s side have actually been more prolific on the road, notching 23 in 17 games away from home. So you imagine they’ll be feeling confident about heading to the Recreation Ground to face Aldershot on Easter Monday.

The Shots have been in woeful form in recent weeks. They’ve managed just one win in eight – and that came against a Welling side who’ve basically become a free pass at this point…

It’s been the goals that have been the big problem. Aldershot have failed to score in nine of their 16 home games and against sides in the top-half of the National League they’ve only managed five goals in nine games on their own turf – failing to score on five occasions.

Barry Smith’s side are missing a proper goalscorer – if you take out top marksman Charlie Walker from their scoring charts, the next best tally is four. It’s just not enough.

The Shots home form has been a really worry as only four sides have picked up fewer points in familiar surroundings than Aldershot and they’re in the bottom four in the division.

Now at this is the point I should probably be telling you to pile into Braintree at 6/4 on Easter Monday but they haven’t picked up three points on the road in their last five, and have only managed two goals in that period, so we’ll swerve that and go down the goals route.

I stumbled across a remarkable stat when researching this one and I’m still struggling to believe it. In Braintree’s last 17 fixtures in all competitions, only one of those games has seen three or more goals in it. That is astonishing.

Those 17 games have seen just 23 goals in total, an average of 1.35 goals-per-game. Perhaps those counting sheep should get themselves down to Cressing Road.

But all jokes aside, that ratio is ridiculous and if I was smart enough to recalculate it into betting terms, I’m sure I’d be gasping and depositing in perfect synchronicity.

So while this is a tad short for my liking, the 4/5 (Sportingbet) about Under 2.5 Goals in Easter Monday’s match-up seems marvellous value – and when it comes to marvellous value, I just cannot say no.

Best Bets

Aldershot v Braintree – Under 2.5 Goals (4/5 Sportingbet)

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About Author

After completing his degree in Sports Journalism, Callum has worked exclusively in sport, firstly as a Media Officer for a National League club, before moving into the world of betting, via operations and marketing for one of the UK's biggest online bookmakers. Callum's lifelong Manchester United fan and an avid follower of Racing, NFL and Baseball, among others.

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