National League: Few goals fancied at The Shay

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NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday's National League card.

Aldershot v Fylde | Saturday 30th March 2019, 12:35 | BT Sport

It's not looking good for Aldershot. Just six games remain and the Hampshire-based club sit 10 points from safety, with a terrible goal difference and just two wins in their last 25 matches across all competitions.

Goals have been a big problem for Gary Waddock's men, especially at home, so welcoming promotion-chasing Fylde to the Recreation Ground in front of the BT Sport cameras probably isn't an ideal fixture.

The Shots have lost eight and drawn three of their last 11 when on home soil, failing to score eight times in that period. Opponents Fylde have the third-best goals against record in the league, conceding just 34 in their 38 league matches.

Fylde lost in midweek, but that was against league leaders Leyton Orient and I'm sure Dave Challinor will have his men ready to bounce back here. Defeat was just their second in their last 15 games – the last time they did lose they followed it up with a 6-2 win against Havant & Waterlooville.

The worry is the Coasters have one eye on Wembley after qualifying for the FA Trophy final last weekend with a victory over Stockport. I'm sure they would have had it drummed into them how important league form is as promotion to the Football League must be the club’s priority.

Automatic promotion probably isn't very realistic for the visitors now, but with how the play-offs work in the National Leagues, a top three finish is a huge advantage. The teams that finish second and third have just a one legged semi-final, at home against a side that will have had a game a few days prior.

I'm backing Fylde to get back on track here and odds of 49/50 with Marathon look generous, to me.

Halifax v Maidenhead | Saturday 30th March 2019. 15:00

If you want to see goals this weekend it would probably be wise to steer clear of The Shay.

Just 28 goals have been scored in 20 league games at the home of Halifax – an average of just 1.40 goals per-game. This is mainly due to the home side’s excellent defensive displays, with Matty Brown and Nathan Clarke being particularly impressive at the heart of that backline.

The Shaymen have conceded just nine times in those 20 outings and have now kept six clean sheets in a row on home soil. The last time they did concede at home was in the 6th minute of their New Year’s Day clash with Harrogate.

Opponents Maidenhead sit in 19th, nine points clear of relegation. It would take an absolute disaster on their part to be relegated now, even if they lost every game I'd be surprised if their 47 points weren't enough to keep them up.

The Magpies have been great at home in recent weeks, but on the road they have lost four of their last five encounters, scoring just twice in that time. Over the course of the season the Berkshire-based club have netted just 17 times in 20 on the road. It could be a long afternoon in Yorkshire for United’s attackers.

Under 2.5 Goals looks short enough at 17/25 with Marathon, but I prefer the look of Both Teams To Score ‘No’ at 19/20 with BetVictor. The bet would have landed in eight of the last 10 home fixtures for Halifax and 10 of the last 12 on the road for Maidenhead.

Best Bets

Aldershot v Fylde – Fylde to win (49/50 Marathon)

Halifax v Maidenhead – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (19/20 BetVictor)

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About Author

I first got the taste for betting when I was quite young, every year I would pick a horse for the Grand National and my Dad would go to the bookies and put my £1 each way bet on. As soon as I could get away with it I was in the bookies every Saturday afternoon searching the football coupons and putting on stupidly big accas. Now enjoy betting mainly singles or small multiples, usually sticking to the English leagues. I don't favour any particular market, but rarely watch a game without having small first scorer bet for a bit of fun. I've got 3 boys which take up most of my time, but luckily they enjoy going to watch football and days at the races. I'm a life long Grimsby Town fan, one of a few that has seen some ups as well as all the downs.

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