National League: Dragons can seal vital narrow success

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NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday night's National League coupon.

Chesterfield v Sutton | Saturday 23rd March 2019, 12:30 | BT Sport

The BT Sport cameras head to Derbyshire and the Proact Stadium for the lunchtime kick-off in the National League on Saturday for what I fancy to be an entertaining game.

After a poor start to the season, where Chesterfield racked up an unbelievable amount of draws, the hosts have finally managed to turn stalemates into much needed victories. The Spireites have won six of their last 11 in the league to pull themselves away from the drop zone and will be looking to build on that here.

Opponents Sutton currently sit in ninth, just four points of seventh. The Yellows will be hoping a good run in will see them reach the play-offs for the second year running, after last season’s third-place finish.

I can see there being plenty of goals in this game. Chesterfield’s last five encounters have produced an impressive 19 goals, whilst the visitors have been involved in 16 goals in the same time span. Marathon are going 113/100 on Over 2.5 Goals, that's a price I'm more than willing to get involved with.

Another bet that has caught my eye is in the Anytime Goalscorer market. Spireites front-man Scott Boden, who signed from Gateshead in January, is in the form of his life. Between his two clubs this season the former Wrexham striker has netted an impressive 17 times – nine of those coming in his last 12 outings – and more recently he has five in his last four.

Bet365 go 7/4 that Boden nets again here and with penalty duty onside, that looks a cracking price.

Hartlepool v Wrexham | Saturday 23rd March 2019, 15:00

Generally, Hartlepool games have seen plenty of goals this season, but then again they haven't been playing Wrexham each week.

Wrexham now have the second-best defensive record in the division, conceding just 29 times, one more than league leaders Leyton Orient – although the O's have played two games fewer.

Since taking over the Wrexham job, Bryn Hughes has continued to play to the strengths of his squad. They keep it very tight at the back, yet struggle to score many when going forward.

This has resulted in just five of Wrexham’s last 20 in all competitions seeing three or more goals – one of those was against League Two Newport where the Dragons had to play 80 minutes with just 10 men.

Understandably the bookies are keen to keep the unders onside and at a best price of 63/100 for Under 2.5 Goals I won't be getting involved. Under 1.5 looks a bit more appealing at 199/100, but I think there's better value to be had in the Correct Score market.

I'd say the away team are more likely to nick the three points to take back to Wales as they continue to battle for the title. BetVictor are a generous looking 13/2 on a 1-0 win for the visitors. The scoreline has landed in four of the last nine ties Wrexham have been involved in and was also the result when these two sides met earlier this term.

Maidstone v Ebbsfleet | Saturday 23rd March 2019, 15:00

I think it's fair to say Maidstone won't be plying their trade in this division next season – the Stones are 14 points from safety and the bookies have stopped taking bets on them to go down.

The Kent sides biggest problem this season has been their form at the Gallagher Stadium where they have picked up just 10 points and scored just 15 goals in 18 league encounters. Only Huddersfield have picked up fewer points at home in the top five divisions.

John Still's hosts have lost six of their last eight, failing to score in each of those reverses.

Ebbsfleet sit in 10th but will still be hoping of a play-off push, sitting just six points short of seventh. Garry Hill's men have great attacking options in Danny Kedwell, Corey Whitely and Michael Cheek and I fancy them to be too strong for their opponents here.

The Fleets away form has been impressive this season, picking up 28 points on their travels, just two points less than they have achieved at home, yet they have played two games less on the road.

Marathon are offering 97/100 for an away win, a price I thought would much shorter.

Best Bets

Chesterfield v Sutton – Over 2.5 Goals (113/100 Marathon)

Chesterfield v Sutton – Scott Boden to score at anytime (7/4 Bet365)

Hartlepool v Wrexham – Wrexham to win 1-0 (13/2 BetVictor)

Maidstone v Ebbsfleet – Ebbsfleet to win (97/100 Marathon)

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About Author

I first got the taste for betting when I was quite young, every year I would pick a horse for the Grand National and my Dad would go to the bookies and put my £1 each way bet on. As soon as I could get away with it I was in the bookies every Saturday afternoon searching the football coupons and putting on stupidly big accas. Now enjoy betting mainly singles or small multiples, usually sticking to the English leagues. I don't favour any particular market, but rarely watch a game without having small first scorer bet for a bit of fun. I've got 3 boys which take up most of my time, but luckily they enjoy going to watch football and days at the races. I'm a life long Grimsby Town fan, one of a few that has seen some ups as well as all the downs.

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