National League: A value approach to support Salford on Saturday


NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday afternoon's coupon.

Braintree v Solihull Moors | Saturday 17th November 2018, 12.45pm | BT Sport

Over the last few weeks Braintree have managed to find a bit of form and have climbed off the bottom of the National League. The Iron have also been finding the back of the net more often, notching 10 in their most recent five outings.

The main problem for Braintree is their results at Cressing Road. The hosts have lost six of their last seven on home soil, only beating the side they leapfrogged in the table, Dover, in that spell.

Unsurprisingly, the Iron boast the worst home record in the division. Overall, in their nine Cressing Road games, Braintree have picked up just four points and conceded on average just over two goals per-game

Solihull are continuing to do well and surprise many. Away from home they have won five of their last six, picking up four clean sheets in the process. Manager, and ex-England goalkeeper, Tim Flowers has his side very well organised at the back, conceding only once in their last five games in all competitions.

The price on the away win his been drifting the last few days, it's out to 19/20 now with Betway and that looks good enough to get involved with.

Boreham Wood v Ebbsfleet | Saturday 17th November 2018, 15:00

Whenever Boreham Wood have played at home recently, goals have been on the agenda. The Wood's last five encounters at Meadow Park have produced 19 goals – almost four per-game on average.

As well as this, all five of those home matches saw both teams find the back of the net. The Hertfordshire club have also managed to get themselves on the scoresheet in every home outing this term.

Ebbsfleet have a similarly successful record of both teams scoring with each of the last five seeing BTTS bank. The Fleet also find the net regularly on their travels having failed to score just once in their 18 road trips.

Clearly I like the look of Both Teams To Score here and Bet365 have generously priced that up at 19/20.

Salford v Aldershot | Saturday 17th November 2018, 15:00

Salford's great run of results has continued as they are now 18 games unbeaten, although they have picked up a few draws recently. Last time out the Ammies drew 1-1 with League One side Shrewsbury in the FA Cup; they played very well and were unlucky not have gotten more from the game.

Although the Manchester-based club keep picking up points, they have also been picking up some unwanted stats. Salford have conceded in each of their last seven, a run that has included fixtures with Braintree, Dover and lower league Marine. Meanwhile, Graham Alexander's men have kept just two clean sheets at home all season.

Aldershot aren't in too bad a form overall – they have scored in seven of their last eight. The away record for the Shots must be a concern though, as on the road they have lost seven of their last nine.

My first thought when I looked at the fixture was Salford to win and Both Teams To Score available at 5/2 with 888. However, I think I've found better value elsewhere using a method inspired by an article on WeLoveBetting by Will Dyer.

Whilst I fancy the Shots to score here, I can't see them troubling Salford more than once as they have only conceded more than one goal on two occasions this season. Even with all the firepower Salford have going forward, they have only scored more than three goals just once since arriving at this level. Added to this, the away side have not conceded more than three in any game so far this season.

Considering those stats I'm going to Dutch two different correct scores, 2-1 (15/2 BetVictor) and 3-1 (12/1 SkyBet). The idea of Dutching is splitting your stake at different amounts between the two bets to ensure the winnings are roughly the same if either bet wins.

In this example, if I was stacking £10 on the bet, I would have £3.95 on 3-1 at 12/1 and the remaining £6.05 on 2-1 at 15/2. If either result comes in then the profit would be just over £40, essentially making the odds for the bet just over 4/1.

Best Bets

Braintree v Solihull Moors – Solihull Moors to win (19/20 Betway)

Boreham Wood v Ebbsfleet – Both Teams To Score (19/20 Bet365)

Salford v Aldershot – Salford to win 2-1 (15/2 BetVictor)

Salford v Aldershot – Salford to win 3-1 (12/1 SkyBet)

About Author

I first got the taste for betting when I was quite young, every year I would pick a horse for the Grand National and my Dad would go to the bookies and put my £1 each way bet on. As soon as I could get away with it I was in the bookies every Saturday afternoon searching the football coupons and putting on stupidly big accas. Now enjoy betting mainly singles or small multiples, usually sticking to the English leagues. I don't favour any particular market, but rarely watch a game without having small first scorer bet for a bit of fun. I've got 3 boys which take up most of my time, but luckily they enjoy going to watch football and days at the races. I'm a life long Grimsby Town fan, one of a few that has seen some ups as well as all the downs.

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