THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE continues on Wednesday as Napoli entertain Liverpool at the Stadio San Paolo. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his betting thoughts.
Napoli v Liverpool | Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 20:00 | BT Sport
Having looked at the match odds initially, my plan was to oppose Liverpool.
At 6/5 they feel a little short, in what is likely to be a tough game against a side with much attacking threat. However, on further reflection, while I couldn’t back the Merseyside outfit at the current prices, there are factors that put me off opposing them.
Firstly, they have faced two of their toughest tests in the Premier League in recent weeks – away to Tottenham and Chelsea – and passed with flying colours. The 2-1 victory over Tottenham really flattered their opponents and while I believe the draw at Chelsea was a fair result, I was impressed with their overall performance.
In the aftermath of that match, much was made about the performance of Mo Salah. While the Egyptian didn’t have his greatest game, he still created chances for himself and was a constant threat to the Chelsea backline.
With the match odds therefore ruled out, my advice is to sit back, relax and back goals in what is likely to be an exciting encounter at Stadio San Paolo. Over 3.5 Goals is a best price of 13/8 with Bet365 and I think there are several reasons to believe this is good value, with the price implying there is a 38% chance of four goals or more being scored.
Since Jurgen Klopp became Liverpool manager, six of his 15 Premier League matches away to other members of the Big Six saw the Over 3.5 Goals bet land. Moreover, in last season’s Champions League, this bet would have left you in profit in four of Liverpool’s six away matches and two of Napoli’s three home games.
Indeed, while Mauricio Sarri may have left Naples, there has been little let up in the Italian sides goalscoring exploits. They have found the net on 13 occasions in seven Serie A matches, yet also conceded 10.
All in all, there is much to suggest that this will be an entertaining duel. Having failed to beat Red Star Belgrade in their opening fixture, Napoli need a win here and Liverpool only know one way to play.
If you can get close to 9/2 on Mo Salah in the First Goalscorer market anywhere then that is also worth a few pennies, but with that unlikely I simply recommend Over 3.5 Goals at 13/8 with Bet365.
Napoli v Liverpool – Over 3.5 Goals (13/8 Bet365)