FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert George Elek (@GeorgeElek) runs the rule over the League One play-off semi-final second leg between Scunthorpe and Millwall.
Scunthorpe v Millwall | Sunday 18:30
Millwall came away from the first leg stalemate frustrated as they were unable to make their superiority count at The Den. Their tremendous home record this season meant the onus was on them to take the advantage on Thursday, and they now face an uphill task to get to the Wembley final for the second time in two years.
Neil Harris’ team have only kept three clean sheets on their travels this season, none of which were against the division’s best teams.
Charlton, Coventry and Oldham all drew blanks when hosting Millwall, but they rank 18th , 23rd and 24th respectively for home goals scored in League One.
Glanford Park the key
Only Sheffield United, on the other hand, picked up more points than Scunthorpe at home this season, and The Iron have scored three goals in three of their last four games at Glanford Park.
The bookies are having a hard time splitting these two over 90 minutes and, whilst Millwall looked the stronger team on Thursday, this will be a very different environment, with conditions favourable to the hosts. The 33/20 with Marathonbet on Scunthorpe to win in 90 minutes should therefore be snapped up.
This should be a more open affair than the first leg, especially with the opening goal for either team so crucial in providing some kind of advantage and drawing the opposition out.
We have established that, statistically, Millwall are unlikely to keep Scunthorpe at bay, which would lead in turn to an open game where the Neil Harris’ men will have to force the issue.
A small investment in Scunthorpe to win and BTTS at 9/2 could well pay dividends in what promises to be an exciting Sunday in Scunthorpe.