THERE’S live League One football on Easter Monday as league leaders Burton travel to promotion-chasing Millwall. Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) analyses the odds.
Millwall v Burton | Easter Monday 19.45 | Sky Sports 1
Having talked Burton up to a tee ahead of their Saturday encounter with Oldham, I’m just wondering whether the Brewers have the minerals to complete the job.
Nigel Clough’s men were second best for large swathes of that clash and although Albion enjoyed the better chances, it’s telling that only one effort in the whole 90 minutes was on-target. Burton were flat and looked lost for ideas under Oldham’s effective pressing game.
It’s now W3-D3-L2 across the past eight games for the Brewers who’ve seen their established advantage at the top of the tree trimmed to just four points by Wigan. Third-placed Walsall could close the gap to four, should they win their game in-hand too.
As mentioned before Saturday, Albion have built their side upon extremely solid foundations. Eleven of their matches have been won 1-0 win and 17 of their 23 successes by a single-goal; with a league-best average of just 3.00 shots-on-target conceded per-game, it’s proven a trusted formula.
But Burton aren’t a free-scoring side. Whilst the visitors have struck in nine of their last 10 as guests, only five of their 19 on the road since promotion have seen the Brewers strike at least twice. It suggests defences could dominate at The Den.
Like Burton, Millwall put in a rather lethargic performance at Bradford. Neil Harris opted for a defensive approach and the Lions were edged out 1-0 having rested leading scorer Lee Gregory and landing just two efforts on-target.
The Bermondsey boys prefer a rather ridged 4-4-2 and attempt to dominate the defensive battle; they’re well-drilled under Harris and come into this showdown looking to record five consecutive clean sheets for the first time since 2003.
The Lions have improved their record at The Den of late thanks to W4-D2-L1 from their past seven, alongside those aforementioned shutouts but a W1-D2-L4 return when welcoming clubs in ninth and above is slightly off-putting.
Still, during a goalless draw with Wigan on 1st March, Millwall won the shot-count 20-5 and reduced the Latics to just a solitary on-target effort. Indeed, only Port Vale (4-5) have enjoyed more shots-on-target at The Den than the Lions this calendar year.
Harris’ hosts appear a good thing at 6/4 (Bet365) to strike a serious blow on Burton’s title-winning ambitions. However, I’m going to play it safer and have a bite on the generous 8/11 from SkyBet on Millwall in the Draw No Bet market.
I’ll also take 8/11 from SkyBet on Both Teams To Score ‘No’. The duo have recorded exact stats in this market, collectively accruing 28/38 (74%) of home/away games in which the BTTS bet has failed to land. That percentage implied a 4/11 shot so the 8/11 is a great value bet to be on.
Millwall v Burton – Millwall draw no bet (8/11 SkyBet)
Millwall v Burton – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (8/11 SkyBet)
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