MANCHESTER UNITED face RB Leipzig in Wednesday night's Champions League highlight. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his betting thoughts.
Manchester United vs RB Leipzig | Wednesday 28th September 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Last year's semi-finalists RB Leipzig are pitted in a difficult looking group with PSG and their opponents here, Manchester United. The Germans won their opener with outsiders Istanbul Basaksehir and with PSG losing at home unexpectedly against an out of form United side the group has been blown wide open. There’s a real chance for the current Bundesliga table toppers to win the group.
Julian Nagelsmann has drawn many admirers for how he goes about setting his side up and getting an edge on opponents, I’m party to his fan club too. I think they’ve been quite harshly priced up here, I was expecting a pick ‘em in the market but the Red Devils are going off as short as 5/4 to win which looks a bit odd.
Yes, they did beat Les Parisiens in their own backyard (again), but the hosts were well off it and United prefer being underdogs away. Their home form under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer still leaves a lot to be desired, they’ve lost their home games on an aggregate score of 9-2, failing to win any of those matches.
United also fare poorly on the performance data, they’re still bottom-six fodder on expected points, xG and shots in the box ratio in the Premier League this season. They’re coming up against a Leipzig side that were fully deserving of their place in this competition once again, and although they’ve lost Timo Werner, they have a clear way of playing that all their players understand to a tee, the same can’t be said of United.
You can probably see where I’m heading with this. I’m happy to take Die Roten Bullen with a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicap at 10/11 with BetVictor as the main selection here. It would see us profit if the visitors avoided defeat.
I’ll also dip into the props market as one player really stood out towards the end of last season and his form has carried through to this campaign. Centre half Dayot Upamecano has been linked with United in the past but he signed a new deal with Leipzig which is a huge coup for the club. First and foremost he is an exceptional defender, but his attacking efforts have not gone unnoticed to me.
The Frenchman is so well adept at bringing the ball out from the back and attacking space when it opens up and he even got into positions where he would pull the trigger from outside the box. Not only that, he is a major threat from set pieces given his height and heading ability.
Upamecano has attempted a massive three shots in his last two games against Augsburg and Hertha Berlin and is clearly being targeted from these situations. He also managed a shot in the game against Istanbul BB in the opening gameweek.
In fact, he scored at the weekend and also managed a shot on target against Augsburg. Given his nifty form I’m happy to back the 22-year-old to attempt a shot in the match at 13/10 with Coral on their BuildYourBet feature, if that price does go then skybet go 5/4 which is only slightly shorter. We can also back him to have a shot on target at 13/2 with Betfair which looks a huge price. I’m on.
Best Bets
Manchester United vs RB Leipzig – Leipzig +0.25 Asian Handicap (10/11 BetVictor)
Manchester United vs RB Leipzig – Dayot Upamecano to have 1+ shot (13/10 Coral)
Manchester United vs RB Leipzig – Dayot Upamecano to have 1+ shot on-target (13/2 Betfair)
