Manchester City vs PSG | Tuesday 4th May 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
- Manchester City have won their last 6 Champions League games, scoring 2 or more in all 6.
- PSG have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 5 games (all competitions).
The first leg of this meeting was a typical game of two halves. PSG overwhelmed Man City in the first half but maybe expended too much energy as they faded in the second half. Nevertheless, Les Parisiens had the better of it, winning the expected goals count and will be disappointed with the goals they conceded.
There’s still question marks over the availability of Kylian Mbappe, without him in the starting line up could affect match odds quite considerably given his importance in the final third. He was kept relatively quiet in Paris last week but he’s shown time and again that he can go away to the biggest and best teams and thrive in that environment.
Given the hosts don’t actually need to win this to go through there is an argument that they’re too short to get involved with. However, the visitors will have to come out and attack and that could leave plenty of space for City on the counter attack.
Instead of playing the 1X2 market I’ll take the 6/5 available on the second half being the highest scoring half with Sport Nation. It’s odds-on in places and it landed in the first leg. Given the dynamics of the tie it could mean both are happy to keep things tight early on before it simply having to open up later on.
If Mbappe is not able to play, even more pressure will lie on Neymar’s shoulders. The Brazilian is one of the most fouled players in the world but his petulance can lead to him being carded too. He’s well known for kicking off in the biggest of games, 3 cards in this competition as well as 4 yellows and 2 reds in Ligue 1 isn’t great discipline.
He’s come out and said that his side have to do anything it takes to win here, I’m expecting a fair few cards for PSG if they’re winning and have something to hold onto, or if they’re losing they’ve shown themselves to lose their heads late on. Neymar was booked last week and I can see a repeat here, 2/1 quotes aren’t the greatest but when you factor in the magnitude of the game it looks a play.
I can’t ignore the 40/1 on him to see red either. He’s been sent off in high tempered games against Marseille and Lille this season and it genuinely wouldn’t surprise me if he decides to lose it.