Manchester City vs Leicester | Sunday 27th September 2020, 16:30 | Sky Sports
Both these sides come into this one with 100% records in the league. Leicester have scored seven already in their two wins over West Brom and Burnley and look decent going forward whilst Manchester City have played just the one game, an impressive 3-1 victory at Wolves.
Pep Guardiola has found it very difficult to beat the Old Gold last year and it was a marker of what they’re about this term, professional in their approach and sound enough defensively, he will be hoping his side can build on that for their first home game of the league season.
Lets not forget that City were head and shoulders above anyone on the Expected Goals (xG) data last season from an attacking perspective and play some enthralling forward thinking football and that’s regularly reflected in their odds.
Going off at quotes of 1/3 might look a touch short here against a decent Leicester side but the added quality the hosts possess should be too much for the Foxes. Even without Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus, Pep knows he can play with all manner of personnel in a front three. Liam Delap shone midweek in the League Cup but it’s likely that Raheem Sterling will take the mantle at the top of the pitch with Riyad Mahrez drafted into a wide forward position.
I think the magnitude of Leicester losing Wilfred N’didi to injury is greater than that of the loss of Aguero/Jesus for City. The Nigerian destroyer has been a shining light for Brendan Rodgers the past couple of years and without him they can be got at between the lines, somewhere where City thrive.
No doubt the visitors will ask questions of the Blue Moon on the break with the pace and directness of Harvey Barnes and Jamie Vardy and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them get in on the act.
To get value out of City at short prices is always a task but I’m happy to dutch two correct scores as a bigger priced punt. I’ll be placing 60% of my stake on a 3-1 home win and 40% on a 4-1 home win at 10/1 and 16/1 respectively (Bet365).
With this optimum staking plan we get a 5.67/1 shot should either land, which looks nice. This meeting last season ended 3-1 and City have won by these scorelines on nine occasions last season and of course they did last week.
One alternative angle that looks tempting is the odds-against 11/10 (SkyBet) quotes on the hosts picking up 20 or more Booking Points. We all know how cynical this side can be under Pep, given how many men they commit forward they are often susceptible to the counter attack, a scenario that regularly takes players into the book.
Wolves are a team that like to play on the break and that saw Man City pick up three cards. Despite being comfortably in the lead for the large majority of games they also ranked mid-table in the card table last season, which included four red cards.
The aforementioned Barnes and Vardy have lightening speed which the likes of Rodrigo and Fernandinho simply don’t. Here we would need City to pick up two yellow cards or just a single red.