MAN CITY meet Brighton on Wednesday night at The Etihad. Brett Curtis (@Brett_Curtis92) is on-hand to deliver his favourite fancies.
Manchester City vs Brighton | Wednesday 13th January 2021, 18:00 | Sky Sports
Manchester City take on Brighton at the Etihad Stadium, with Pep Guardiola's side looking to close the gap on title rivals Liverpool and Manchester United.
Brighton, meanwhile, are only three points above the relegation zone having played two games more than Fulham, so could really use the points themselves.
Graham Potter's side are up against it versus a rampant City side, though, especially with Yves Bissouma, Tariq Lamptey, Danny Welbeck, Aaron Connolly and Adam Lallana all ruled out.
City have won all six league meetings since Brighton were promoted in 2017 by two or more goals, and I fancy them to get the job done comfortably again here.
It's not a fixture which has produced many cards, either, with all six meetings seeing fewer than four shown.
I'm going to back City to win by two or more goals, Under 2 Goals for Brighton, Under 3 Cards for City, and Under 3 Cards for Brighton at 21/20 using Bet365's Bet Builder.
This would have landed in five of the six aforementioned meetings, with the one exception when Brighton picked up three yellow cards in 2018, but Bissouma's absence and the fact that Lewis Dunk is one yellow card away from missing a more winnable fixture against Leeds on Saturday makes me extra confident that this will land once again.
Elsewhere, like many people I've been hugely impressed with Ilkay Gundogan's form of late, with Guardiola letting him off the leash in a more attacking role.
Indeed, Guardiola's switch to a striker-less system means Gundogan is instructed to attack the box much more often than in the recent past, so evens (Betfair) for the Germany midfielder to have one shot on target looks a very good price considering this has landed in City's last four league matches. Gundogan was rested in the FA Cup at the weekend, so should be fresh and raring to go from the start.
Bernardo Silva's form has improved to a lesser extent, too, with the midfielder scoring in both meetings against Brighton last season (as well as in 2018) and twice against Birmingham at the weekend, so he should be full of confidence.
If the Portugal international starts ahead of Riyad Mahrez on the right flank, 11/8 looks a very good price for him to test Brighton's goalkeeper at least once, while the double with Gundogan pays a little over 4/1.
Brighton's hopes will largely pin on Neal Maupay, with bet365 offering evens on the striker to test Ederson at least once. Given City's dominance of late and Brighton's lack of pace on the counter-attack, I don't fancy this as much as Gundogan and Silva to be honest, but it's not a bad price at all given that Maupay has had at least one shot on target in all of his last 11 league starts.
Manchester City vs Brighton – Manchester City to win by 2+ goals, Under 2 Brighton Goals, Under 3 Manchester City Cards, Under 3 Brighton Cards (21/20 Bet365)
Manchester City vs Brighton – Ilkay Gundogan 1+ Shot on Target (1/1 Betfair)
Manchester City vs Brighton – Bernardo Silva 1+ Shot on Target (11/8 Betfair)