Manchester City vs Borussia Dortmund | Tuesday 6th April 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
Manchester City have so often fallen at this hurdle in their quest to win the much sought after Champions League. Strange team selections, a shaky defence and a mental deficiency have being contributing factors in years gone by, however, this City side look a much more solid and reliable prospect.
Their 2-0 win away at Leicester was impressive, limiting the foxes to just 0.3 xG. It’s quite startling that their season xG goal difference stands at a whopping 37.6, thats 13 more than Chelsea who sit 2nd on that particular metric. Some will question their validity as favourites for this tournament given their unsuccessful history on the continent, but their superior numbers, in a competitive league, cannot be dismissed.
What’s more, Pep Guardiola has a fully fit squad to choose from and will be under pressure from fans to stick with the 4-3-3 that has worked so well for him previously.
It will be interesting to see if he opts for a proper number 9 in Sergio Aguero or Gabriel Jesus, or whether he does with one of Phil Foden or Raheem Sterling as a false 9. Both have worked this season but I’d expected one of Jesus or Aguero to start given the dodgy back line about the visitors.
BVB fell to another defeat at the weekend as Eintracht Frankfurt ran out victorious. It’s even more damaging as it stretches the gap between Eintracht and Dortmund to 7 points, they’re unlikely to even be involved in this competition next season which could see key players depart.
One player who’s likely to be part of that leaving contingent is the irrepressible Erling Braut-Haaland. The Norwegian machine has smashed in 31 goals in 27 games this season, including ten already in the Champions League. He has cut a frustrated figure of late, it’s understandable too as he’s scoring the goals but his teammates are failing to keep the goals out at the back.
I think he could well take his anger out here, we’ve seen him score against the likes of Bayern so he shouldn’t be fazed by the opposition. He’s quick as well as a devastating finisher so will be looking to get in behind the City backline.
With his goal scoring record and even with City’s strong defensive figures, I’m not having him as an 11/5 shot to score anytime with Paddy Power. He may only need one chance to score given his excellent conversion rate. He’s as short as 6/4 in places so the quotes north of 2/1 I’m happy to take on the clinical frontman.
I do ultimately see the hosts outscoring the visitors though. A back four of Can, Hummels, Akanji and Guerreiro just isn’t good enough against the elite. The German side have conceded 2+ goals in recent games against Hoffenheim, Köln, Freiburg, Frankfurt, Monchengladbach, Leverkusen and Bayern. They’ve been making some terrible individual errors and it doesn’t help that their goalkeeping quality is amongst the worst in the tournament.
With that in mind I’m happy to take a chance on Man City to win and Both Teams To Score at 9/4 with Betway.
Manchester City vs Borussia Dortmund – Manchester City to win and Both Teams To Score (9/4 Betway)
Manchester City vs Borussia Dortmund – Erling Braut Haaland to score anytime (11/5 Paddy Power)