Manchester City v Watford | Saturday 18th May 2019, 17:00 | BBC
Given that Manchester City finished 48 points better off in the Premier League than their opponents this weekend, it is little wonder that the Citizens are generally as short as 1/4 to win this encounter.
Watford come in to this game with just one win – against bottom side Huddersfield – from their six matches since they beat Wolves in that epic semi-final, but I am prepared to discount those games. Players minds have clearly been on the Wembley showpiece since that incredible comeback and I do actually feel that they have enough attacking ability to cause City problems.
The Hornets may have lost 11 of their 12 matches against the Big Six this campaign, but they were competitive in most of those and did manage to find the net in both games against City.
Five of their 11 defeats against the aforementioned half dozen came via a scoreline of two goals to one and I fancy that result again here. It’s 9/1 with SkyBet and I advise supplementing that with a 3-1 victory for Pep’s side at 10/1 with Bet365.
I have written many a time about the frequency of this scoreline under Guardiola; City have won in this manner on seven occasions in the Premier League this term and 17 of the Catalan’s 114 league matches as City boss. That implies that there is a 15% chance of this occurring yet the odds suggest its around 9%.
If Watford are to score – which I believe they will – then their hero from the semi-final Gerard Deulofeu seems to be their most likely scorer. The Spaniard has scored 12 goals in 33 matches in all competitions this season and in five of his last 13 matches overall (including against City in the 3-1 defeat). At 11/2 with Betfred, backing him to score in 90 minutes looks to be worth a few pennies to me.
At shorter prices, I did consider backing the second half to feature more goals but that’s not really a fun watch for such a short price, so I would rather throw a few darts at bigger prices.