THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Last 16 concludes this midweek as Manchester City welcome Schalke to The Etihad. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his betting thoughts.
Manchester City v Schalke | Tuesday 12th March 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
After a couple of huge surprises in the Champions League last week, perhaps the most optimistic of Schalke fans will believe that their side can make it through to the last eight of this competition. Unfortunately, its hard to make a case for the German outfit, especially given that they blew a lead against 10 men in the previous encounter.
I am certainly not going to back an upset of that proportion but do think the German outfit can score a goal despite ultimately coming off second best. The Champions League is a quite small sample size of matches so it’s the Premier League data I look to to inform my bets.
Since Pep Guardiola took the reigns at The Etihad, such a bet would have landed in 26 of the Citizens 54 home matches, a strike rate of 48%. Betfair price a City win and Both Teams To Score at 15/8, suggesting that this would win just 35% of the time. All things considered – the stats and City’s defensive injuries – lead me to believe that it is far more likely.
I also like the look of a 3-1 City victory at 21/2 with BetVictor. In that 54 game sample I mentioned, City have been victorious by this scoreline on 14 occasions, once again suggesting we are getting excellent value.
When you watch City you can see why this is such a common result. They can fall asleep when the game is won but also have the capacity to win comfortably despite conceding early.