PREMIER LEAGUE expert Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) runs the rule over Thursday night's EFL Cup encounter between Manchester City and Fulham.
Manchester City v Fulham | Thursday 1st November 2018, 19:45
I think it’s fair to say that this game is one for the obsessives, with both sides surely likely to play their second string outfits in this game.
Fulham travel to Huddersfield on Monday night in a huge game at the bottom of the table, while despite winning this competition last season, under Pep Guardiola, Man City have generally made wholesale changes for matches at this stage of the cup.
In the last round away at Oxford, City made 10 changes from their previous game and a similar number of alterations are expected here. Two players I expect to start are Gabriel Jesus and Leroy Sane and I recommend keeping both onside in the First Goalscorer market.
Jesus has been a peripheral figure in the Premier League this campaign but did start in the game against Oxford and duly obliged in this market. Sane has featured more prominently but didn’t get off the bench against Tottenham on Monday night, so I fully expect him to start here.
The German excelled in this competition last season, scoring three goals in his five games and while it is an exaggeration to say he has a point to prove, I think he will relish the opportunity to excel against such a porous Fulham team.
Jesus is 16/5 with 888 and Sane is 6/1 with Paddy Power. These odds imply that there is a 38% chance that one of them scores first and with Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez all unlikely to start, I believe the probability is a lot higher.
I would spread your stakes so that profit is similar regardless of the outcome, so if you put £10 on Jesus put around £5 on Sane.
Manchester City v Fulham – Gabriel Jesus to score first (16/5 888)
Manchester City v Fulham – Leroy Sane to score first (6/1 Paddy Power)