THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE is back on Tuesday night. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) analyses the odds as Manchester City host Dinamo Zagreb.
Manchester City v Dinamo Zagreb | Tuesday 1st October 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
It feels like a familiar prices for a Manchester City home game here as The Citizens are as short as 1/20 to win this match.
City have made a habit of dismantling teams both domestically and in Europe over the past few seasons so while I can make a case for backing Dinamo on the handicap (City are generally seen as three-goal favourites for this encounter), I think I would end up watching the match from behind the sofa.
Last season, Zagreb reached the Last 16 of the Europa League before losing 3-1 on aggregate to Benfica having won the home leg and won their group. This season they reached they’ve beaten Rosenborg with relative ease in order to make the group stage proper, before dismantling Italian side Atalanta by four goals to nil in their opening match.
Obviously none of the aforementioned opponents are in the class of City but Pep Guardiola has been wholesome in his praise and is weary of their pace in attack, with Spanish U21 Dani Olmo a key contributor for the Croatian side.
Since Pep took over as City boss, their home record in this competition reads W7-D1-L1. They’ve scored 22 goals in the process and conceded just six. If this was a Premier League game I would be looking at the 3-1 scoreline and City to win and both sides to score, given the frequency of such a statistic occurring.
However, they have looked more solid in Europe so I will simply recommend dutching the 3-0 and 3-1 scorelines. Since the start of the 2017/18 season, City have played 51 home games in the Premier League and Champions League. They have won 3-0 or 3-1 on 14 occasions suggesting that you should get around 5/2 by implementing such a strategy.
Given that 3-0 is 7/1 with BetVictor and 3-1 is 12/1 with the same firm, clearly you are getting some value. If you were splitting a £10 stake, I would recommend £6 on 3-0 and £4 on 3-1. That was if either win you are guaranteed at least £38 profit.