THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE returns on Tuesday night as Manchester City travel to France to face Lyon. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his betting thoughts.
Lyon v Manchester City | Tuesday 27th November 2018, 20:00 | BT Sport
Manchester City travel to the banks of the River Rhone in France with the revenge in mind, with Lyon the only side this season to have the temerity to beat them this season.
While City can count themselves a little unfortunate to have lost that evening, that win should give the French side some confidence going in to this game. Indeed, while I do not generally try to read too much in to one game, in the Champions League you are often working with small sample sizes and I would find it difficult to make a case for City when you cannot even get 4/9 on an away victory.
Instead, I had a look at the goals market and actually believe there is a shred of value in going Over in this match despite the high line.
Lyon games in the Champions League this season have produced some incredible stats. In their four matches, they have had 73 shots but faced 80, with 28 of their shots being on-target compared to 30 of the oppositions.
To put those numbers in to perspective, their games average 38 shots and 14.5 shots on-target; In the Premier League this term, games average 25 shots and 8.9 shots on-target.
I had a look at their Lique 1 number to understand if this was some kind of anomaly and while they are not as exaggerated, their matches average 2.86 goals compared with the league average of 2.59.
Factoring in the quality of opposition they face here – I have opposed goals in City games on several occasions and usually end up watching old episodes of Only Fools and Horses by half-time – and I think you have sufficient reason to back Over 3.5 Goals, which is available at 21/20 (Betfair).
Correct score approach
In terms of scorelines, there are a couple I like. If my outright bet doesn’t come through I think it’s most likely to be because City have won 2-1.
Since Pep Guardiola became boss, the Citizens have played 113 games in the Premier League and Champions League. A 2-1 victory is by far the most frequent score, occurring 16 times, including in the game away to Hoffenheim earlier in this group. Such a statistic suggests a price of 6/1 would be fair, so all things considered, I think the 8/1 BetVictor are offering is good value.
A 3-1 victory for the blue side of Manchester is their second most common result, occurring 12 times in that sample. Again, BetVictor’s 19/2 on this occurring looks too big.
You may get a better price on the exchange come Tuesday night, but at the time of writing these are the best prices available. I would suggest 20% of your regular stake on these scorelines so if any of the recommended bets are victorious you are in profit.