Liverpool vs Manchester City | Sunday 3rd October 2021, 16:30 | Sky Sport
- Liverpool are undefeated in their last 16 matches in the league.
- Liverpool have scored at least 2 goals in 10 of their last 11 matches in the league.
- Jurgen Klopp has the best managerial record against Pep Guardiola with 9 wins.
Manchester City are once again involved in a huge match which could go a way to seeing who is cut out for a title tilt. They were superb at Stamford Bridge last week and should’ve won by more really. Few teams will dominate the Blues like that but whereas Chelsea are more on the pragmatic side of team style I’d like to think Liverpool cause more organised chaos.
The Reds have a wonderful home record when fans are in attendance under the Klopp years and they look back close to their formidable best and are yet to lose this term. If you look into the xG data, which is usually bossed by Manchester City, you’ll see Liverpool right up there with similar figures showing their results have been deserved.
I’m therefore slightly surprised that this game isn’t priced up closer to what the Chelsea vs Manchester City game was, City went of very slight favourites last week yet at Anfield they’re as short as 11/8 in places with Liverpool trading at 2/1. I rate Liverpool on par, if not better than Chelsea this season and their home record is largely exceptional under Klopp, even in the big games.
The prices mean we can get the hosts onside in the asian handicap market and I’m willing to take the Reds +0.25 at odds of 10/13 (Mansion Bet) here. Backing this selection would see us profit should the hosts avoid defeat with a half stakes win if it ends in a draw and a full stakes payout should Liverpool be victorious.
There’s one area of big value I think in the props market here. With Trent Alexander-Arnold ruled out it’s likely that Jordan Henderson will take up the mantle of free kick taker, at least in areas that suit a right footer. He had 4 shots midweek against Porto, including a shot on target from a free kick. 3 of his 4 shots in that game were from outside the box too.
He’s been well amongst it this season having 2+ shots in 4/7 games. With the added bonus of him over free kicks the 7/2 (Betfair) on him to register 2 or more shots in the game looks like a corking price. I’ll also have a nibble on him to have a shot on target from outside the box at 11/2 (SkyBet).