LIVERPOOL welcome Newcastle to Anfield as the early Premier League leaders look to extend their 100% record. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets.
Liverpool v Newcastle | Saturday 14th September 2019, 12:30 | BT Sport
Steve Bruce hasn’t had the easiest of starts to life as Newcastle manager. Arsenal, Spurs and now Liverpool in the Toon’s opening five fixtures does seem cruel, and therefore I’m not going to be too downbeat on the Magpies just yet.
Bruce is likely to set-up in the same way Rafa Benitez did with quite a low block, and to play on the break, making the most of United’s rare opportunities.
Newcastle were shocking positionally and off the ball against Norwich at Carrow Road but the week after they went to Spurs and won, boasting a strong and compact defensive shape. Spurs were sloppy though and lacked width and invention; it will be a much tougher test against a Liverpool side that have impressed with their adaptability to playing styles.
I’d imagine the Tynesiders will try play it up to Joelinton and wait for runners to come and help out; or maybe they’ll look for the early ball wide to utilise the pace of Christian Atsu and Miguel Almiron. If they can break the Liverpool press then they could get a few presentable chances if their decision making is good enough in the final-third.
However, this does look like not only their most formidable test thus far, but probably of the season. Seldom do visitors come back with anything from Anfield – the Reds are a mammoth 40 games unbeaten in the Premier League on home turf – it’s a quite phenomenal record, and to be fair they warrant their 1/6 quotes here.
Jurgen Klopp will be delighted that key duo Sadio Mane and Mo Salah got the chance to rest up and recuperate over the international break. Possible burnout factor was a worry for a large part of the Liverpool squad given their arduously prolonged but successful campaign last season (and with the various national team competitions). However, they’ve come back with four wins from four despite not playing at their optimum.
Going forward the Reds have been strong but at the back they have had the propensity to give up opportunities to their counterparts. They were much better at Turf Moor though as they kept the hosts down to 0.65 Expected Goals (xG) in their comfortable win.
The betting angle
It has to be noted that Klopp’s troops are notoriously fast starters, they’ve been leading at the break and gone on to record victory in their last seven Premier League matches. It shows their devastation in the final third can be made to be useful due to an excellent setup to control games once ahead.
Goals too, have been a feature. The Merseysiders have scored two or more goals in their last 13 league games, as well as 12 of their last 13 against the Toon Army. The hosts have managed to notch three or more goals in four of those games and Over 2.5 Goals has landed in each of their outings this season.
With odds so prohibitive it is usually a good shout to manufacture your own bet which can be done with a few bookmakers these days. William Hill has their ‘Build YourOdds’ feature and if you combine Liverpool HT/Liverpool FT alongside Over 2.5 Goals you can get a 19/20 quote. That follows the aforementioned trend and gets you a pro-Liverpool bet at a backable price. – you’d have won every time if you backed Liverpool in this way this term.
Liverpool v Newcastle – Liverpool to lead at half-time, full-time and Over 2.5 Goals (19/20 William Hill)