THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE continues on Wednesday night. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) analyses the odds as Genk host Liverpool.
Genk v Liverpool | Tuesday 5th November 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
When researching Liverpool's recent results, I was surprised to learn that they've conceded in all six home Premier League and Champions League matches this season.
Such a stat can lead you to a Liverpool and BTTS selection but upon closer inspection, I believe that this is somewhat of an anomaly.
The Reds have conceded exactly one goal in all five Premier League home games and they've faced Arsenal, Tottenham and Leicester in that sample. Moreover, they conceded the only shots on-target they faced against Leicester – who recorded a Expected Goals (xG) tally of just 0.10 – and Newcastle.
Given that Genk lack the quality of many of these opponents, I will avoid BTTS markets and instead concentrate on the Asian Handicap opportunities.
Since the start of last season, Liverpool have won seven of their 12 games against opposition in the bottom half of the Premier League (a level Genk would aspire to) by at least three goals and given that they are facing a side currently eighth in Belgium's top league, having gained just four points from their last 12 available, I will back them to do the same again here.
Liverpool beat Red Star Belgrade – the worst side in last season’s group – 4-0 and I expect a similar result here. Usually with such a firm favourite, I try to find a correct score market but on this occasion I am happy to take the 10/13 with BetVictor on Liverpool -2.5.
Liverpool v Genk – Liverpool -2.5 Asian Handicap (10/13 BetVictor)