LEICESTER entertain West Ham at the King Power Stadium on Saturday evening. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) picks out his favourite betting angle.
Leicester v West Ham | Saturday 27th October 2018, 17:30 | BT Sport
Both of these sides have lost their last couple of games but that will have to change here.
Claude Puel celebrates his one-year anniversary at the King Power Stadium and the general outlook is a positive one since the Frenchman came on board. He’s stressed that they have the ambition to compete at the upper end of the table and for a possible European spot, however to achieve this they must improve defensively.
The Foxes really struggled to deal with a slick Arsenal side after been the better team for the opening half an hour. James Maddison impressed playing in more of a central role behind Jamie Vardy and Kelechi Iheanacho, who both drifted wide to try exploit the space behind Arsenal’s full backs.
It was a manoeuvre that worked for the most part and I’m expecting Puel to stick with his new look 3-4-1-2 formation here.
That shift in tactical set-up allows greater freedom for full-backs Ricardo Pereira and Ben Chillwell to bomb forward and they were a threat, it consequently led to Leicester’s goal on Monday night. However to crowbar all the players into this formation it’s forced Daniel Amartey into a third centre-half when he’s a midfielder by trade.
It does give the hosts more of an attacking threat but can leave them vulnerable at the back; they’re conceding 1.7 goals per-game on average but they’re also scoring 1.70 goals on average too, so I’m expecting them to notch here.
West Ham have won just twice this season and that makes the 27/10 on them understandable, especially given the fact they’re giving up an average of 1.8 Expected Goals each game this season. However, the Hammers are posting an average xG for figure north of one, so they’ll also fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet.
Andriy Yarmolenko is out for up to six months and that frees up a space on the right-hand side with Robert Snodgrass or Michael Antonio likely to come in. Youngster Grady Diangana could also be pushing for a start after a few bright cameos off the bench.
Manuel Pellegrini will be hoping for the main main Marko Arnautovic to cause the Leicester centre-halves with his power, he does need more help from the three behind him though.
Goals on the agenda
West Ham have failed to score in their last two fixtures against Brighton and Spurs but they were arguably the better side in both games and can count themselves unfortunate to come away pointless.
Leicester have seen Over 2.5 Goals land in six of their last seven Premier League games. Their style of play does give opportunities for their opposition and I think the 113/100 offering from Blacktype looks too big, I’d have it slight odds-on.
Action packed encounter?
I’m also delving into SkyBet’s Request-A-Bet market here for a 8/1 shot that I think is worth chancing. The bet is Both Teams To Score, 4+ Corners each team and 20+ Booking Points each team.
I’ve already covered the reasoning behind both teams notching but there is an interesting disciplinary angle here. Leicester have collected 20+ booking points in five of their last six whereas West Ham have collected 20+ booking points in nine of their last 10. Both sides average over four in the for and against Corner stakes as well.
This particular bet landed at 9/1 in the Arsenal vs Leicester game on Monday night, it’s also landed in Leicester’s games against Bournemouth and Liverpool this season. It landed in West Ham’s game earlier this season against Bournemouth too.
At 8/1 I’m happy to have a stab on this alternative angle.
Leicester v West Ham – Over 2.5 Goals (113/100 Blacktype)
Leicester v West Ham – Both Teams To Score, 4+ Corners each team and 20+ Booking Points each team (8/1 SkyBet)