Leicester v Everton: Sticky Toffees to come unstuck at KP

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LEICESTER host Everton on Super Sunday. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from the televised clash.

Leicester v Everton | Sunday 1st December 2019, 16:30 | Sky Sports

Many were expecting Leicester to possibly threaten the top-six this season but few would’ve predicted the Foxes to be second in the table and with the joint-top goal difference by the end of November.

The impressive Foxes are now as short as 1/40 top finish in the top-six and ante-post punters who were keen on them will be grinning – every week the team they backed are winning.

It’s six victories on the bounce for Brendan Rodgers’ men, they’ve also won their last five by two or more goals. The likes of Jamie Vardy, James Maddison and Youri Tielemans are getting the column inches but I’m going to throw some praise on their defensive efforts this term.

Leicester's underrated ability

For all they’re exciting going forward, what makes this team second is their ability to limit opposition to few chances and that’s been born out in the results with the 2016 champions having only conceded more than once in one game, which was a last-minute Liverpool penalty. Whilst the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea have been far convincing at the back, Leicester have excelled in that department.

Sizeable credit has to go to the savvy recruitment drive at the King Power too, Premier League sides’ transfer policies are ridiculed by pretty much every country outside of the UK for the enormous fees they’re willing to pay on players who have proved relatively little. Leicester have had a clear plan in place for a good few years now to build a well balanced side and they’ve planned ahead to great effect.

They knew Harry Maguire was attracting interest and they brought in Caglar Soyuncu from Freiburg on the down low so that when the time came to sell Maguire for massive money they had a ready made replacement that they’d got on the cheap. Too often teams are forced to pay big bucks for player replacements because sides know they have the money from the outgoing transfer.

Being proactive in the transfer market instead of reactive can save clubs a hell of a lot of money and the big clubs could learn a thing or too from LCFC.

Kudos too has to go to Rodgers who is proving himself as one of the most well-rounded coaches in the division. I’ve been enthralled by his ability to get this side as dominant as they have been, once that collective ethos is ingrained in the team it’s a supremely dangerous weapon. Psychologically it puts opposition on the back foot from the get-go, teams are giving Leicester respect and treating them as a top side. They have dealt with this admirably.

Everton in crisis

We’ve talked about how efficient Leicester have been from a recruitment point of view, at the other end of this scale we have Everton.

Marco Silva is coming under increasing pressure and rightly so. The former Hull and Watford gaffer has spent a kings ransom since he stepped foot into Goodison Park and the side has, in fact, deteriorated.

The duo upstairs in Bill Kenwright and Farhad Moshiri decided to take a European approach and appoint a sporting director, Marcel Brands, back in May 2018 but so far that exercise has looked far from fruitful. Whether the players they’ve brought in just simply aren’t good enough or they don’t have the right man in charge of them, or a mixture of both, something simply has to change.

The Merseysiders currently reside in 16th and you’d doubt they’ll be rising up the table anytime soon with a daunting December ahead. After this clash they face Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, Leicester again in the League cup and then Arsenal.

I just can’t see Silva still being in the hot seat come the New Year but the hierarchy have a monumental decision to make, they’ve largely got these decisions wrong since David Moyes left. Talk of the Scot returning was met with surprising disdain by the Gladys Street faithful, no one has done a better job since he departed and predecessors have had a handsome wallet which wasn’t the case when Moyes was at the helm.

The betting angles

Instinctively, people will look at the 7/10 (Boylesports) on the hosts and think that’s a bit short against a name like Everton but personally I think that’s fair enough. That being said, it’s a tad short to put up therefore i'll boost the home win to a more attractive even-money (Coral) quote by throwing Under 4.5 Goals into the equation.

All of the Foxes wins this season against 11 men have also seen fewer than five goals, the two exceptions being the 5-0 versus Newcastle and the miraculous 9-0 at Southampton, however, both had a man sent off very early on and from there it was a procession.

On the other hand, six of Everton’s seven defeats this season have come alongside Under 4.5. The hosts have the ball-keeping quality should they take the lead and if they do I can’t see the visitors getting back into it with confidence low.

I’m also going to put together a same game multi by utilising Coral’s ‘Build Your Bet’ feature which allows you to combine all manner of player based bets. Now, you’ll have to hear me out on this but the selections are ‘Caglar Soyuncu and Ben Chilwell to have 50+ passes each, Wilfred N’didi and Ricardo Pereira to have 3+ tackles each, James Maddison and Youri Tielemans to each have 2+ shots outside the box’ at 11/1.

If you’ve got your breath back let me explain my reasoning behind these selections in bullet point format…

  • Soyuncu is averaging 75 passes per-game at home with a 90% success rate
  • Chilwell is averaging 73 passes per-game at home with an 80% success rate
  • N’didi is averaging 5 completed tackles per-game at home
  • Pereira is averaging 4.5 completed tackles per-game at home
  • Maddison is averaging 2.8 shots outside the box at home and is also on free kicks
  • Tielemans is averaging 2.3 shots outside the box at home

So, these players are all averaging more than what we’ve quoted them there when playing on their own patch. Of course it’s a bit of a flyer but it could provide some interest at a double figure price and the stats back it up so why not give it a go?

Best Bets

Leicester v Everton – Leicester to win and Under 4.5 Goals (1/1 Coral)

Leicester v Everton – Caglar Soyuncu and Ben Chilwell to have 50+ passes each, Wilfred N’didi and Ricardo Periera to have 3+ tackles each, James Maddison and Youri Tielemans to each have 2+ shots outside the box (11/1 Coral: Build Your Bet)

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