THERE'S an all-Premier League clash at the King Power Stadium on Tuesday when Leicester host Manchester City in the League Cup quarter-finals. Debutant WLB contributor Adam Wallis (@SharpSignals) finds an angle that could pay if the Foxes can frustrate the visitors.
Leicester v Manchester City | Tuesday 18th December 2018, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Leicester host the EFL Cup holders Manchester City on Tuesday night with a hope to progress to the final-four. City will be looking to improve on last year's meeting when the defending champions were taken to penalties here, something Leicester seem to be getting used to.
The home side's campaign has not been easy going they started with a comprehensive win over Fleetwood, they then drew 0-0 with Wolves progressing on penalties, with the same result at home to Southampton again Leicester went through on penalties.
Manchester City despatched of League One strugglers Oxford 0-3 to set up a home tie with Premier League new boys Fulham, a match they dominated as expected and won 2-0. In both those matches City created over 3.0 xG, limiting their opponents to just 0.34 xG over the two games. This is what we have come to expect from Pep Guardiola's side and I don’t think it will be any different here.
This fixture last season ended 1-1 with the Premier League champions going through on spot kicks – if we take a look at the metrics created Leicester (2.05 xG) actually generated 0.90 xG more than City (1.1 5xG) and maybe the home side deserved a little more out of the game. City had 12 shots with seven on-target with Leicester having 11 attempts with only four on target.
So, what’s the angle? Well, we pretty much know what City are, their metrics this season in the Premier League are outstanding. The Foxes season is so far going as expected, they have a +0.22 xG difference based on my figures, which tells us that they are performing on a level.
The hosts have scored 18 league goals this season so far, conceding 17 and they sit in 12th with 21 points which is far enough away from the drop zone, but miles off a European spot, and realistically a decent cup run is what they have to play for this season.
Manchester City, as you would expect are heavy favourites at 4/11 (bet365) and the natural handicap is set at 1.25, which is a fair reflection based on the price. The goal line is set at 3.0 which again is what you would expect from a match involving City.
Leicester have faced Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs so far this season and have lost all four of those matches. In the opening game of the season against United they created enough to warrant a draw – they posted 0.69 xG more than Liverpool and lost 1-2, Arsenal's 3-1 win was a fair result and in the 0-2 loss to Spurs they probably deserved something as they again created the same as their opponents.
Out of those matches, it was only the Arsenal game that had xG totals over 3.0. In the three games they have played in this competition so far, they have average 2.09 xG totals per-90 minutes with two 0-0 results.
City, as mentioned, are outstanding in the quality and quantity of chances they are creating but I think Leicester will keep it tight here. It’s the Under 3.0 Goals line where my money is going, as with any match involving City the threat of goals is always there but this is a big game for Leicester and they need a result.
Manchester City’s xG metrics can cover the 3.0 goal line on their own without a doubt, they have the ability to blow teams away, but if Leicester can get a foot hold in the game and frustrate City then we could get a run for our money with three goals seeing our stake returned.
Leicester v Manchester Cityy – Under 3.0 Asian Goals (9/10 bet365)