La Liga Tips | 6th-7th December 2014


MARK O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) enjoyed a profitable weekend in La Liga last weekend. So who’s he backing from the Spanish top-flight next?

Elche v Atletico Madrid | Saturday 15.00

On first glance Atletico’s away form might be a touch off-putting. For a side expected to challenge for silverware again this season, Diego Simeone’s men hold a W3-D1-L2 record on the road.

However, exclude their opening day 0-0 draw at Rayo and they can be forgiven for defeats at Sociedad and Valencia – two teams who’ll make it extremely tough for all visitors; just ask Real Madrid and Barcelona.

Recently though, the Mattress Makers have found their form, winning five of their last six games in La Liga, with four victories by a two-goal margin or more.

This weekend they head to Elche and Simeone’s men boast a rock-solid away record to the league’s lesser lights. Atleti have bagged nine wins from 13 visits to bottom-half finishers last season and teams currently in the bottom-10. They’ve won by more than one goal in five of those wins and also sealed seven wins ‘to nil’.

Elche, for their part, have suffered seven defeats already this season. Six of those losses have come by a margin of two goals or more and they’ve lost ‘to nil’ in three of their last five games at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. The hosts have also failed to score in their last six home outings against top-six teams, losing four of those matches ‘to nil’.

Atletico can be backed to win ‘to nil’ at 5/4 with Skybet but I’ll take the -1 Asian Handicap option at evens with Bet365.

Deportivo v Malaga | Saturday 21.00 | Sky Sports 5

Deportivo might be struggling to keep their heads afloat with only two wins from 13 to their name since winning promotion back to the top-flight but there’s cause for a tinge of optimism. Honest.

It’s their worst La Liga start since 1964, they’ve failed to score in three games, lost 7/13 already and been beaten in 3/6 at their Riazor base. But two of those losses came when they faced a rampant Real Madrid side whilst Almeria stole a winner with the last kick of the game.

The Brancoazuis have actually now kept clean sheets in four of their last six, suffering just two defeats in that time. The last came against defending champions Atletico Madrid on a somber weekend for Spanish football. It can be excused.

Depor can be backed at 39/40 with BetVictor in the Asian Handicap market with a +0.25 start. With this selection, we’ll be in profit should they avoid defeat against Malaga on Saturday night.

Javi Garcia’s visitors are missing three key personnel and are likely to find things tough at the Riazor. Nordin Amrabat, Juanmi and Sergio Sanchez will all be absent – not ideal when you consider that one of Amrabat or Juanmi have scored in four of their last five away wins – they’ve lost all five matches since the start of last season when both have been missing, scoring just once!

The Anchovies’ form on the road has long been poor. Malaga have taken maximum points in just six of their last 25 away games since the start of 2013/14 and also been beaten in half of their last 16.

I don't normally pay too much attention to head-to-head records but it's worth pointing out the dominance Depor have had over Malaga in the Spanish top tier. They've only lost one of the last 21 meetings in all competitions and boast a W1O-D1 record at home to the visitors, keeping seven clean sheets in the last eight games they've hosted Malaga. Woof.

Rayo Vallecano v Sevilla | Sunday 11.00

Back-to-back 1-0 wins isn’t in Rayo boss Paco Jemez’s manual. Entertainment is normally on the menu when the capital club are on show and I’m going to bank on that being the case in Sunday’s early kick-off.

A whopping 17/25 games at Vallecas have featured Over 2.5 Goals since the start of last season and it tallies in nicely with Sevilla’s road record where 15/24 away games have also seen at least three goals plundered.

Unai Emery’s visitors have actually seen Over 3.5 Goals in 11 of those 24 road trips whilst their last two matches have produced six goals.

Four of the last six meetings between the two teams have also broken the Over 2.5 Goal barrier and Skybet are offering 5/6 that this game follows suit on Sunday.

Granada v Valencia | Sunday 20.00 | Sky Sports 5

It must be tough being a Granada supporter. They’ve picked up just two points from a possible 27 and failed to score in six of their last nine.

Star man Yacine Brahimi was sold in the summer and El Grana are struggling for penetration in the final third since his departure. But it’s not all bad news for the Andalusians.

Coach Joaquín Caparrós has installed a disciplined and strong defensive backbone to the team that’s resulted in only Sevilla and Malaga outside the traditional two super powers in La Liga scoring more than once against them.

With that in mind, four of their five home games have seen fewer than two goals whilst seven of their previous 10 home games against top-half teams excluding Real Madrid and Barcelona have seen Under 2.5 Goals.

Valencia might be all singing and all dancing at the Mestalla but Nuno Espirito Santo’s side continue to toil on the road. They’ve failed to score in their last three league outings now and in 8/14 away games seen Unders has banked.

With Granada rarely leaking more than a solitary goal, it’s worth point out that 11/13 Valencia away fixtures have also seen Under 2.5 Goals when they’ve conceded fewer than two goals themselves. Back Under 2.5 Goals at 8/11 with Skybet.

Best Bets

Elche v Atletico Madrid – Atletico Madrid -1 Asian Handicap (1/1 Bet365)

Deportivo v Malaga – Deportivo +0.25 (39/40 BetVictor)

Rayo Vallecano v Sevilla – Over 2.5 Goals (5/6 Skybet)

Granada v Valencia – Under 2.5 Goals (8/11 Skybet)

About Author

The big cheese at WLB. After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production before setting WeLoveBetting up soon after the 2014 World Cup. With a huge passion for stats, analytics, the EFL and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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