EUROPEAN football expert Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) has sourced the best three bets from this weekend’s La Liga coupon. Are you following him in?
Getafe v Levante | Saturday 19.00
A run of six wins in 13 games this calendar year should be enough to secure Getafe’s top-flight status for another season in Spain but the capital club could still have a big say in who will join them in La Liga next year. On Saturday the Deep Blues welcome Levante to their Coliseum Alfonso Pérez and I think I’ve spotted a slice of value.
Pablo Franco’s the third man to lead Getafe this season and although his eight games in charge have returned 10 points, performances have been rather inconsistent. However, goals have remained fairly fruitful and there’s plenty of reason to believe BetVictor’s Over 2 Goals offering of 9/10 could look a little too big come Saturday night.
Taking this selection means we’ll get our cash back if only two goals are netted at the Coliseum but if three or more goals are plundered, we’ll have ourselves a winner. The only way in which we could lose our stake is if zero or one goal is netted.
Remove results against La Liga’s top-four and Getafe have scored in 10/12 at their Madrid home with 10/16 (63%) overall reaching the two-goal threshold and 8/16 (50%) featuring three goals or more. The Deep Blues have kept just one clean sheet in nine when hosting league football.
Levante travel west with Lucas Alcaraz overseeing an enjoyable transformation to their style and approach to games. The Frogs are showing a willingness to get forward and although they were convincingly beaten at high-flying Valencia and Real Madrid on the road in recent weeks, a 4-1 success at Almeria showed Alcaraz’s men really can cause teams problems.
I’m well aware the visitors have lost seven of their last eight on the road and failed to even score in five of their previous seven road trips but with Getafe missing both first-choice centre-halves in Emiliano Velazquez and Alexis on Saturday, they should be able to fashion an opportunity or two. In the nine fixtures that Velazquez has missed this season, the hosts have conceded 18 goals!
Anyway, a huge nine of Levante’s last 11 La Liga matches have featured Over 2.5 Goals with only one encounter since January failing to produce more than one goal. With that in mind, plus the fact 11/16 (69%) of the Frogs road games have already made the two-goal bar, our goals bet looks a solid and safe option.
Real Sociedad v Villarreal | Saturday 21.00 | Sky Sports 5
Real Sociedad produced arguably their worst performance under David Moyes’ stewardship on Monday night at struggling Elche but a return to home comforts should stand the Basques in good stead for the visit of Villarreal on Saturday night. And yes, I’m keeping the faith with Moyes’ boys.
Sociedad’s solid record at the Anoeta certainly isn’t news; it’s been a constant for a few years now. Take results from 2012/13 until today and we can see La Real have returned hugely impressive W29-D15-L10 figures from 54 La Liga fixtures on home soil. Prefer a shorter term view? The Basques have W7-D3-L1 in their last 11 starts in front of their home fans.
It’s easy to point to lack of motivation as Sociedad are perched on the edge of the top-half with little to play for but sustaining that excellent home record should keep Moyes and his players from verging off course again. And there’s also a little bit of revenge in the back of La Real’s mind.
Villarreal took the sword to Sociedad when the two teams met earlier in the season and whilst that comfortable victory for the Yellow Submarine came in the midst of a stunning run, Marcelinho’s men are well of colour coming into this encounter.
Villarreal enjoyed a wonderful 28-match consecutive scoring streak earlier in the campaign but have now failed to notch in five of their last six. They’ve scored from open play in that time, either. The visitors are yet to notch an away La Liga win in 2015 (W0-D6-L2) and make the journey north without a whole host of key players.
Both first-choice centre-backs Mateo Musacchio and Eric Bertrand Bailly are out and they’ll be joined on the sidelines by Giovani dos Santos and Denis Cheryshev. Ikechukwu Uche and Lucieno Vietto are also deemed doubts for the trip. So can you have faith in Marcelinho’s travellers upsetting the form book? I can’t.
I’m choosing to enter the Asian Handicap market for this one. BetVictor have made Sociedad +0.25 a 4/5 play and that’s just far too big. Basically our stake is split across two bets – Sociedad +0.50 (double chance) and Sociedad 0 (draw no bet). This means that should the game end in a home win, we take home maximum profit. But should the encounter end all square, we’ll still pocket half of that potential pay-out with our stake returned for the second part of the punt. The only way we won’t make money is if La Real lose. Decent, huh?
Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano | Sunday 18.00 | Sky Sports 5
Sevilla are heading for another European semi-final having safely secured their passage from the quarter-finals with an impressive 4-3 aggregate win over Zenit in midweek. Los Rojiblancos return to La Liga action on Sunday for a visit from Rayo Vallecano and it’s difficult to see anything else than a comfortable home victory at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
Unai Emery’s team have gone well over a year without defeat when hosting La Liga opposition (W17-D7-L0) and under Emery’s watch have returned W19-D2-L2 figures when welcoming bottom-half opposition. A huge 15/19 of those victories were won by a margin of two goals or more, making the 30/29 (BetVictor) on offer for Sevilla -1.5 on the Asian Handicap look very attractive.
We’ll pocket profit should the hosts win by two goals or more and Los Rojiblancos take on a Rayo side that tend to suffer when visiting the division’s big guns. In 20 matches under Paco Jemez at top-half teams, Los Franjirrojos have W6-D2-L14 with 11/22 games ending in defeats by two goals or more. This season Rayo have lost all eight games on their travels against top-half clubs with an aggregate score of 6-32.
The capital club make the journey to Andalusia have lost five of their previous six road trips, conceded six goals in two of their last three away days. Sevilla have already equalled their points total from the whole of last season and don’t tend to mess about when hosting fixtures. I’ll back them for a comfortable three points.
Best Bets
Getafe v Levante – Over 2 Goals on the Asian Goals line (9/10 BetVictor)
Real Sociedad v Villarreal – Real Sociedad +0.25 Asian Handicap (4/5 BetVictor)
Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano – Sevilla -1.5 Asian Handicap (30/29 BetVictor)
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