International football continues on Friday as Germany welcome Spain for a mouthwatering match in Dusseldorf. Lucas Swain-Britton (@LucasSwain95) shares his best bets.
Germany v Spain | Friday 23rd March 2018, 19:45 | BT Sport
This time of the year is a funny one for international football. Not only does the break come at a horrible time of the season as it reaches its apogee, you get some hilarious friendlies propping up as countries frantically seek matches they may slightly resemble their soon-to-be World Cup opposition.
For example, Group B sides Iran, Spain and Portugal are clearly seeking some preparation for Morocco and are left completely stumped as to what to do. That being said, someone has clearly drawn the conclusion they play a similar style to Tunisia because Iran, Portugal and Spain are playing them in the coming months.
Strength in depth
Deutsche Welle ran a graphic on Twitter recently highlighting the sheer level of quality in Joachim’s Löw’s side as they look to defend their World Cup crown in Russia. The bookmakers have Germany as 5/1 favourites currently and it’s no real surprise.
The weakness in Germany’s side used to be the forward department, with no real replacement for Miroslav Klose. However, with Timo Werner’s rise and Sandro Wagner offering an alternative in the striking department, it’s fair to say the Die Nationalmannschaft are covered.
If you're wondering why Germany are 5/1 World Cup favourites, here's your answer.
Strength. In. Depth. pic.twitter.com/FOiZN7NRrE
— WeLoveBetting ? ? (@WeLoveBettingUK) March 22, 2018
The match is to be played in Düsseldorf’s ESPRIT Arena, which is a fitting venue for such a fixture (yes, I’m extremely bias as a Fortuna Düsseldorf supporter). However, I don’t envisage the North Rhine-Westphalia crowd getting the classic they may be hoping for.
Where's the bet?
Taking a glance at the recent head-to-head record between Germany and Spain, it’s the Spaniards who come out on top. Spain have lost just twice with in their previous seven clashes with the current World Cup holders. However, this record does span back to 1994 so perhaps it’s best to eschew from that when looking at the betting.
One stat which is far more prominent and worthy of note is Germany’s phenomenal record at home. With just one defeat since Euro 2016, it’s fair to say Joachim Löw’s side are a tough unit on familiar soil. Moreover, they’ve drawn just two matches at home in the same time frame!
There is one trend in Spain and Germany’s respective fixtures of late which takes my interest, and that’s opposing goals. Six out of Germany’s last seven non-competitive matches have ended in a Under 2.5 goals, and Spain aren’t exactly goal-laden when facing top European opposition.
A victory for either side will be a great psychological heading into the summer months before a World Cup considering the bookmakers have these two as front-runners. Therefore, I’m going to be backing unders in this match and expecting it to be a tight affair.
Germany v Spain – Under 2.5 Goals (1/1 PaddyPower)
Germany v Spain – Germany to win (7/5 Unibet)