TOM LOVE (@TomLove_18) has perused the markets ahead of Saturday's showdown between Fulham and Manchester City at Craven Cottage.
Fulham v Manchester City | Saturday 30th March 2019, 12:30 | Sky Sports
Seldom do you see a home side priced up as big as 22/1 in a Premier League fixture, that is however the case here with lowly Fulham being given little or no chance by the bookies to pull off a surprise against reigning champions Manchester City.
Look at the form lines and it is a complete contrast. Fulham are currently in the midst of a seven-game losing streak, whereas Man City are on a six-game winning run. The odds reflect this disparity but there could be an argument made that the prices have swung too far.
The Cottagers are pretty much resigned to relegation. Having said that, they’ve shown some degree of fight since Scott Parker took temporary charge. Fulham have been defeated recently at home against Chelsea and Liverpool but both games were lost by a single goal, they’ve scored in the majority of their games and it’s defensively where they’ve had an almighty struggle.
Manchester City are still gunning for the quadruple, and with a huge Champions League quarter-final clash on the horizon against Spurs, it’s likely to be a case of ‘get the job done’ for Pep Guardiola’s troops in these kind of games.
With the Citizens likely to monopolise possession, it’s hard to see a way Fulham would come back from conceding if such a scenario plays out. It’s that time of the season where results are ultimately all that matters – if City go 2-0 up it could be a case of take off the key men to protect them for future matches and see the game out.
Key men Fernandinho, Kevin De Bruyne and John Stones all remain doubtful for the visitors and skipper Vincent Kompany is ruled out. They’ve coped admirably without injured players this season but they have the strength in depth for that not to be a problem. Nevertheless, Pep will not want any more casualties as we come into the business end of the season therefore a precautionary approach could be adopted if the game plays out as expected.
When City steamroller teams, it tends to be at the Etihad rather than on the road. That makes the 4/5 (Betway) on the Citizens to win in a game featuring Under 4.5 Goals a value price given only once have the Blue Moon won an away game with five or more goals (Cardiff away). Given they’re as short as 1/9 to win, it’s a big boost in price and allows us to have a whole host of scorelines onside at a much more palatable quote.
Fulham v Manchester City – Manchester City to win and Under 4.5 Goals (4/5 Betway)