CHAMPIONSHIP specialist Ross Casey (@RossCasey24) shares his verdict from Tuesday night's clash between Fulham and Leeds at Craven Cottage.
Fulham v Leeds | Tuesday 3rd April 2018, 19:45 | Sky Sports
This clash has big ramifications in the promotion race for both sides with third placed Fulham looking to catch Cardiff in the automatic promotion places and Leeds could be seven points off the play-offs with a win here.
Fulham have pretty much sewn up a play-off spot thanks to a run of 17 matches without defeat in The Championship. That incredible sequence of results includes eight home matches unbeaten with seven wins and one draw.
They have been scoring goals for fun too, netting at least two in 10 of their last 12 matches and last failing to get on the scoresheet on the 16th of December in a surprise 1-0 defeat away at Sunderland.
Keeping clean sheets has also been key to their success at Craven Cottage, too. The two goals conceded in their last home game against QPR (which they drew 2-2) were the first in six games!
Another plus for Fulham and those backing them is the likely return of youth prodigy Ryan Sessegnon, who returned to the bench last time out against Norwich. The left footer, who can play at full-back or on the wing has scored 14 goals this season.
Leeds ended a four match winless run with their 2-1 win over Bolton last time out. That victory came at home, where Leeds have picked up 54% of their points this season.
That doesn't sound like their away form is too bad at all, but a closer look suggests that they really struggle on the road against the better sides in The Championship. Of the seven victories away from Elland Road, only Bristol City are in the top half!
Their last win away from home came back on Boxing Day with a 2-1 victory over Burton. That is a run of eight matches without three points with five of those matches ending in defeat.
They do have a big plus in the fact that key playmaker Samuel Saiz returned with a substitutes performance against Bolton last weekend and he should be fit enough to start here.
The betting angle
I see this one going to the home side. They are in fantastic form with 17 games unbeaten and winning nine of their last of their last 11 at home. Considering Leeds' current away form and record against the top sides in The Championship on the road, this one looks a no brainer. Especially when you consider new Leeds boss Paul Heckingbottom has lost all four fixtures against Fulham in his career so far, including both for Barnsley already this season.
There is also value in looking at Fulham to score two or more goals for the 11th time in their last 13 matches – despite the short price. Leeds have conceded two or more in five of their last seven away matches.
Fulham v Leeds – Fulham to win and Over 1.5 Goals (7/10 BetStars)