MARK O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with two bets from the Championship in a depleted Football League coupon. Plus, there's another chance to win one of two £10 free bets courtesy of our new Football League video sponsors, Vernons!
Brighton v Blackburn | Saturday 15.00
Brighton bagged their first win in 12 on Tuesday night when beating Wigan 1-0 at the Amex. It was their first clean sheet in seven games, only their second home win of the season and just their third in 16 Championship outings since Sami Hyypia took charge on the south coast. But I’m not allowing that win fool me.
Brighton are 11/10 to win this fixture and I just can’t be having that. Rovers are almost 3/1 with Vernons but I’m taking the +0.25 on the Asian Handicap at evens. This simply means, we’ll get a full payout should Blackburn win and if the game ends all square, we’ll get half our stake back and half of it will be a winner.
Since the start of last season, Blackburn have W10-D11-L10 away from Ewood Park, meaning in 68% of their 31 games this bet would have made profit. Rovers have scored in 25 of those games and netted 2+ in 13 – that’s 42%.
Rudy Gestede’s been in prolific form of late alongside Jordan Rhodes whilst Ben Marshall and Tom Cairney are wreaking havoc from the wings. Rovers have W4-D4-L1 in their last 9 and starting to get into the groove under Gary Bowyer.
Meanwhile, Brighton’s lack of goals has cost them so far this season. They’ve netted in their last seven but are still the fifth lowest scoring side in the league. They’ve only scored 2+ in 5/16 matches under Hyypia and before Tuesday, they’d only shut Blackpool out in seven home league outings.
As mentioned previously, the Seagulls have managed just three Championship wins in 2014/15 and at home since the start of last season they’ve W12/31 (39%). So again, we’re seeing 61% of games they’re failing to win. That’s all we require to make money out of this game.
Birmingham v Cardiff | Saturday 15.00
I've not yet recovered from my own sloppy performance on Tuesday. I went against my own New Manager Syndrome theory to oppose Birmingham at home to Watford and it came back to bite me in the arse.
It was just one win in 25 league games at St Andrews before Tuesday night. But Birmingham put in a fantastic display to come-from-behind and beat Watford, costing me a few quid in the process. Gary Rowett’s had a fantastic introduction to life in the Blues hot-seat and he’ll be eager to get even more out of his squad in the coming weeks.
Next up is a visit from Cardiff and despite that dreadful home record, I’m siding with Birmingham. Rowett’s men have been chalked up as 7/4 outsiders with Vernons to win this match but the new manager effect has brought a wave of optimism and belief back to the club and it just looks too big.
Cardiff have proved nice and reliable in Wales, winning 6/8 in the Championship but they’re winless in eight on the road despite playing five of the bottom-nine teams! The Bluebirds have now lost three on the spin ‘to nil' on the road and have a paltry five goals to their name when playing away. What’s even more concerning for Russell Slade is the fact his side have kept just 1/16 league clean sheets and that was back in August.
Brighton v Blackburn – Blackburn +0.25 (1/1 Vernons)
Birmingham v Cardiff – Birmingham to win (7/4 Vernons)
Win A £10 Free Bet With Vernons
We've got two £10 free bets to give away thanks to our Football League video sponsors Vernons. All you need to do is tell us is, which Football League team you think will LOSE this weekend. Yes, either a Championship side or a League One or League Two team playing in the FA Cup.
To enter, just post your selection in the comments section below. You MUST also quote the Vernons odds of your pick otherwise your entry will not count. So a sample entry would look something like this;
- Wolves to lose 4/7 (Vernons)
To access all Vernon's odds just click here: Vernons
Oh and by the way they're offering all new customers a £25 Free Bet. Decent!
The two shortest-priced losing selections will win the free bets and the winners will be notified by email. WeLoveBetting's decision will be final. Last week's winners have been mentioned in the video.