AFTER bagging a 12/1 treble last weekend Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with three more Football League tips. Plus, there's the chance to win one of two £10 free bets courtesy of our new Football League video sponsors, Vernons!
Brentford v Derby | Saturday 15.00
After 14 games 10 teams are separated by just five points at the top of the Championship but Derby are sitting pretty at the top of the tree. The Rams have been in outstanding form since losing away to Charlton in August, winning six in an unbeaten run of 11.
But that came to an end at home to Wigan last weekend, a surprise result on the coupon. Steve McClaren suggested it was ‘just one of those days’ when things didn’t go to plan and that can (and will) happen a few times each season. I'm happy to brush it under the carpet, especially as they went out and thrashed Fulham on Tuesday night.
So instead, I'm diving straight in on the 5/4 with Vernons that the Rams get back to winning ways at Brentford on Saturday. Derby have won four on the spin away from home in the league, keeping three clean sheets. Include cup football and they’ve won five on the trot, scoring 14! It’s nothing new to the Rams though, since the start of last season they’ve won 15/30 on their travels and that record is 12 wins from 25 away from home under McClaren’s charge.
Brentford have made a positive start to life in the second tier but one win in five has slowed their progress and Mark Warburton’s team have now have managed just one goal in their last three outings. It’s also interesting to note, Brentford have taken 17 of their 19 points off bottom-half clubs. They’ve taken just two points from a possible 18 against the top-12, scoring just twice in those six games.
Notts County v Walsall | Saturday 15.00
I'm happy for the world to know all about my man-crush on Shaun Derry. He's a marvellous man and he's undergone a marvellous job at reinvigorating Notts County alongside his best pal Greg Aboott. At the start of the month they signed deals to stay at Meadow Lane until the end of 2016 and the good-feeling hasn't stopped since.
I’m always a bit nervous backing a team on a decent winning streak and the Magpies have won five on the spin now and are unbeaten in nine league fixtures. They’ve kept five clean sheets in that spell and hit 13 goals in those five victories. Yet Vernons are giving us 6/4 on another Notts County win. That’s just too good to turndown.
Even during last season’s battle against the drop County were competitive at Meadow Lane and they’ve now won 15/30 (50%) in front of their home fans since the start of last season, including eight of their last 12!
Walsall have a knack for grinding out results, especially on the road, in recent seasons. They halted a three-game losing streak with a 1-0 win over Chesterfield last time out. But four defeats in seven-winless away fixtures can’t be ignored, with only two of those matches coming up against top-half teams.
What’s more, the Saddlers have failed to net in 4/7 away, managing just three goals on the road. In fact, half of their 12-goal haul from 15 League One games came in two home victories, meaning they’ve managed just six goals in 13 league matches! It's County all the way.
Bury v Cambridge | Saturday 15.00
We’ve mentioned this a few times in the Football League chapter – teams who tend to struggle on the road but are completely ruthless on their home ground. Bury, for me, are the best team in the league but they’re struggling for consistency.
At home, they’ve proved superb. Six wins on the spin since they lost on the opening day to Cheltenham, scoring 14 and keeping three clean sheets. The Shakers are back at Gigg Lane and I’ve got to have them at almost even-money – 10/11 with Vernons.
On first glance, two wins and three defeats in six doesn’t look great for David Flitcroft’s team but the winless matches were on the road and they did take a well-earned point at Southend last time out – a much-needed response from their 5-1 hammering by Shrewsbury.
Cambridge arrive having won three of their last five and the honour of being the league’s top scorers. And yep, they’ve only suffered two defeats in seven on the road but it’s hard to ignore the price when Bury are at home. Flitcroft’s won 11/20 (55%) home games since taking over at Gigg Lane and they should get plenty of opportunity against a Cambridge side that likes to come out and play.
Brentford v Derby – Derby to win (5/4 Vernons)
Notts County v Walsall – Notts County to win (6/4 Vernons)
Bury v Cambridge – Bury to win (10/11 Vernons)
Win A £10 Free Bet With Vernons
We've got two £10 free bets to give away thanks to our Football League video sponsors Vernons. All you need to do is tell us is, which Football League team you think will LOSE this weekend.
To enter, just post your selection in the comments section below. You must also quote the Vernons odds of your pick otherwise your entry will not count. So a sample entry would look something like this;
- Wolves to lose 4/7 (Vernons)
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The two shortest-priced losing selections will win the free bets and the winners will be notified by email. WeLoveBetting's decision will be final.