FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) shares his favourite fancies from the Easter Monday coupon.
Ipswich v Millwall | Easter Monday 2nd April 2018, 15:00
- Ipswich will have a 48-hour turnaround for this fixture, having to play Birmingham away on Saturday afternoon.
- Ipswich have W4-D5-L8 in their past 17 games, failing to score in 7/11 of late including each of their past 4.
- Ipswich have failed to score in each of their last 5 at Portman Road (W0-D2-L3) – their longest-ever goalless streak at home, as well as 8/19 home league games this season.
- Ipswich have only scored 2 goals in their last 8 home outings – that means Mick McCarthy’s men have notched just twice in 12 hours at Portman Road.
- Ipswich have W6-D1-L13 against top-half teams, including W3-D1-L5 at Portman Road.
- Ipswich are posting a 16-game Expected Goals ratio below the 39% mark , only Burton are posting a worse shot ratio this season and only Burton average fewer shots on-target than the hosts.
- Ipswich are without Dean Gerken, Emyr Huws, Tom Adeyemi, Andre Dozzell, Teddy Bishop, David McGoldrick and Joe Garner.
- Only 9/39 (23%) of Ipswich’s matches have featured Over 3.5 Goals with their home games averaging just 2.24 goals per-game.
- Millwall have W12-D6-L2 since December, including winning their last 6 away games – only the second time in their history they’ve achieved such a feat.
- Millwall have W7-D1-L0 since early February, keeping 5 clean sheets.
- Millwall have kept 3 consecutive clean sheets and recorded 9 shutouts in that 20-match spell since December.
- Millwall have scored in 17 of their past 20 games and in 9/10 when travelling to the bottom-half.
- Millwall have W15-D7-L7 against teams below them in the table, including W6-D2-L4 away.
- Only 6 sides average more shots on-target per-game than Millwall whilst the Lions are posting an Expected Goals ratio round the 64% mark over their past 8 games.
- Millwall’s matches are averaging 2.18 goals per-game with only 8/39 (21%) featuring four goals or more. Only 3/19 (16%) away games featured Over 3.5 Goals.
I’m backing Millwall double chance and Under 3.5 Goals (5/7 188BET).
Shrewsbury v Oxford | Easter Monday 2nd April 2018, 15:00
- Shrewsbury have W12-D3-L3 at home this season, including W10-D2-L1 when welcoming teams below the top-six.
- Shrewsbury have kept 9 clean sheets in those 13 games against teams below the top-six at home.
- Shrewsbury boast a 64% win rate at home from 33 games under Paul Hurst, including 19 (58%) clean sheets.
- Shrewsbury have posted an Expected Goals ratio above the 60% mark over their past 8 outings.
- Shrewsbury have seen 14/18 (78%) home games this season feature Under 2.5 Goals and 15 (83%) produce Under 3.5 Goals.
- Shrewsbury will be without defender Toto Nsiala and captain Abu Ogogo but Bryn Morris is available again and Ben Godfrey returned against Rochdale.
- Oxford have W2-D2-L7 in their last 9 fixtures, conceding 2+ goals on 7 occasions.
- Oxford have W1-D4-L5 in their last 10 away days, conceding 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 games as guests.
- Oxford have W1-D3-L5 against teams in the top-six this season.
- Oxford have posted an Expected Goals ratio below 40% over their past 8 outings, the third-worst return in League One.
I’m backing Shrewsbury to win and Under 3.5 Goals (13/10 Ladbrokes).
Crawley v Swindon | Easter Monday 2nd April 2018, 15:00
- Crawley’s good run has long since ended and they’ve since W1-D2-L5.
- Crawley have scored in 15 of their last 16 games and fired a solitary blank at home since mid-October.
- Crawley have kept only 1 clean sheet in 13 and only 2 in 13 when hosting teams in 15th and above.
- Crawley have seen Over 2.5 Goals pay-out in 11/13 matches with games averaging 3.77 goals per-game.
- Crawley’s last 8 games and past 16 games are averaging over 3.00 Expected Goals per-game.
- Swindon have W3-D2-L5 to surrender their position in the top-seven.
- Swindon saw Both Teams To Score bank in 8 of those 10 matches, and Over 2.5 Goals also collect on 8 occasions.
- Swindon have scored in 19/20 away games, scoring 2+ goals in 12 fixtures.
- Swindon have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 16/20 away trips with matches averaging 3.10 goals per-game when playing away.
- Swindon’s Expected Goals average stands at 3.40 per-game over their last 8 games.
I’m backing Over 2.5 Goals (89/100 Marathon).