Football League – Profit from the Pirates on Good Friday

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FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) shares his favourite fancies from the Good Friday coupon.

Sheffield Wednesday v Preston | Good Friday 30th March 2018, 15:00

Sheffield Wednesday

  • Sheffield Wednesday have W1-D1-L5 from their past six games, sneaking a late win in their last outing at out-of-form Leeds. That win has put the Owls eight points clear and should confirm their Championship status.
  • Sheffield Wednesday have claimed only five home victories this season.
  • Sheffield Wednesday have only scored more than 1 goal in 12 of their 38 outings.
  • Over the past eight games, Sheffield Wednesday’s Expected Goals ratio return is below the 40% mark.
  • Sheffield Wednesday have seen 84% of their home games feature Over 1.5 Goals.
  • Sam Hutchinson and Barry Bannan have returned and Fernando Forestieri is a close to a return but lacks match fitness although defenders Joost van Aken and Jordan Thorniley remain unavailable.

Preston

  • Preston have W3-D1-L0 over their past four fixtures and have W10-D9-L3 since the November international break.
  • Preston have W6-D5-L1 in their last 11 away games.
  • Preston have W6-D3-L0 on the road to bottom-half teams.
  • Preston have scored in 20 of their past 22 matches.
  • Only Wolves (37) won more away Championship points than Preston (32).
  • Preston have seen 74% of their games this season feature Over 1.5 Goals.

I’m backing Preston double chance and Over 1.5 Goals (1/1 188BET)

Bristol Rovers v Bury | Good Friday 30th March 2018, 15:00

Bristol Rovers

  • Bristol Rovers have won 10/18 (56%) of their home games this season and 23/41 (56%) of home matches since the start of last season.
  • Bristol Rovers have won 7/11 when welcoming bottom-six sides.
  • Bristol Rovers boast the league’s fourth-best Expected Goals ratio over the past 16 games.
  • Bristol Rovers have scored 2+ goals in 11/18 (61%) home games.
  • Bristol Rovers have seen 16/18 (89%) of home games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 13/18 (72%) break the Over 2.5 Goals barrier with 14/18 (78%) paying out for Both Teams To Score backers.
  • Bristol Rovers welcome back Tom Lockyer and Ryan Sweeney from international duty.

Bury

  • Bury have lost 3/3 of late and lost 4/6 further back, almost certainly confirming relegation with the Shakers 10 points from safety.
  • Bury have W1-D8-L14 in their past 23 away trips in League One and no side in England has picked up fewer away points this season (8).
  • Bury have W0-D2-L8 when travelling to the top-half this season, conceding 2+ goals on eight occasions.
  • Bury have seen Both Teams To Score bank in 10/18 (56%) away days, plus Over 1.5 Goals collect in 13/18 (72%) fixtures.
  • Bury will be without long-term absentees Craig Jones, Jermaine Beckford and Eoghan O'Connell.

I’m backing Bristol Rovers to win and Over 1.5 Goals (29/20 BetStars).

Notts County v Wycombe | Good Friday 30th March 2018, 15:00

Notts County

  • Notts County put in a poor performance at Chesterfield last weekend, losing 3-1 and looked defensively inept again.
  • Notts County have now kept only 5 clean sheets since September.
  • Notts County have now W5-D4-L6 over their past 15 outings, falling outside of the automatic promotion places.
  • Notts County have W12/19 at home but failed to beat a fellow top-seven side at Meadow Lane.
  • Notts County’s home games average 2.84 goals per-game with 84% breaking the Over 1.5 Goals barrier.

Wycombe

  • Wycombe weren’t great last weekend against a defensively-minded Port Vale and were left frustrated by a 0-0 draw at Adams Park.
  • Wycombe have been at their best away – they’ve already amassed 35 points on their travels and W6-D1-L0 on their travels of late, collecting more points in games as guests than any side in England in 2018, scoring 16 goals.
  • Wycombe have W12-D4-L4 since mid-November, failing to score twice.
  • Wycombe boast the league’s second-best Expected Goals ratio over the past eight, 16 and 24 games, emphasising their ability as a major promotion candidate.
  • Wycombe’s matches average 3.26 goals per-game with 77% featuring at least two goals.

Best Bets

Sheffield Wednesday v Preston – Preston double chance and Over 1.5 Goals (1/1 188BET)

Bristol Rovers v Bury – Bristol Rovers to win and Over 1.5 Goals (29/20 BetStars)

Notts County v Wycombe – Wycombe double chance and Both Teams To Score (6/4 188BET)

About Author

After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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