Football League: Goals to flow in Spotland showdown


FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) reveals his favourite selections from the Boxing Day EFL action.

Stoke v Sheffield Wednesday | Thursday 26th December 2019, 15:00

  • Sheffield Wednesday have W4-D2-L0 in their last 6 games.
  • Sheffield Wednesday have W8-D6-L3 under Garry Monk in the Championship.
  • Only Leeds and West Brom have earned more Championship points since Garry Monk’s appointment at Sheffield Wednesday.
  • Sheffield Wednesday have scored in 15/17 games under Garry Monk and recorded 6/17 clean sheets, conceding 2+ goals in only 3/17 matches.
  • Sheffield Wednesday have W8-D2-L0 at teams in 15th and below this season.
  • Sheffield Wednesday now rank third for Expected Goals (xG) from open play ratio, as well as shots attempted from inside the penalty area.
  • Sheffield Wednesday will have top goalscorer Steven Fletcher available again.
  • Stoke are rock-bottom and have W2-D3-L15 when excluding bottom-four rivals.
  • Stoke have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 outings this season.
  • Stoke have the worst home record in the Championship (W3-D2-L7), conceding 2+ goals in 7/13 as hosts.
  • Stoke’s performance data has regressed since Nathan Jones’ departure.

Sheffield Wednesday Double Chance and Sheffield Wednesday to score Over 0 Goals (8/11 Bet365)

Rochdale v Fleetwood | Thursday 26th December 2019, 15:00

  • Rochdale have W1-D0-L6 in their last 7 games, lost 10 of their last 14 League One fixtures and been beaten in 10 of 13 games against clubs in 14th and above.
  • Rochdale have scored in 11 of 16 home games under Brian Barry-Murphy.
  • Rochdale will welcome back Ian Henderson to the team for Boxing Day.
  • Rochdale have only managed 5 clean sheets in 21 outings this season and giving away the third-highest Expected Goals (xG) from open play figure.
  • Rochdale have seen Over 2.5 Goals land in 14/21 encounters this term.
  • Fleetwood are generating the highest Expected Goals (xG) from open play figure, scoring in all bar 2 of their 19 League One matches this term.
  • Fleetwood have shipped more goals than any of their top-16 rivals, keeping just 3 clean sheets.
  • Fleetwood have seen Over 2.5 Goals land in 8 of their 9 away games with 3.78 goals per-game scored on average and 7 paying-out for Both Teams To Score backers.
  • Fleetwood have seen BTTS land in 14/19 fixtures this season with 13/19 rewarding Over 2.5 Goals backers.
  • In the 13 games that Fleetwood have avoided defeat, the Cod Army have had to score at least 2 goals in 11 of those games.

Over 2.5 Goals (11/10 Marathon)

Oxford v Lincoln | Thursday 26th December 2019, 15:00

  • Oxford have W8-D4-L1 since mid-September in League One, as well as enjoying an impressive EFL Cup run where the U’s gave Manchester City a serious examination.
  • Oxford beat 10-man league leaders Wycombe with ease last weekend and have seen a collection of leading lights return to the squad from injury.
  • Oxford concede the fewest open play opportunities in League One and feature prominently in the leading pack for chances created and shots attempted from key areas.
  • Oxford have W6-D2-L1 at the Kassam Stadium this season, scoring 3+ goals in 5/9 fixtures and keeping 7/9 clean sheets in the process.
  • Lincoln have W4-D3-L10 since mid-August, including W1-D2-L8 on their travels.
  • Lincoln were well beaten at Coventry last weekend and have now lost 6/6 games against sides in the top-seven since promotion.
  • Lincoln languish in mid-table for a range of performance data metrics and have scored 2+ goals in only 3/17 since mid-August and only twice in 6 trips to top-half teams.

Oxford to win (5/6 Marathon)

Best Bets

Stoke v Sheffield Wednesday – Sheffield Wednesday Double Chance and Sheffield Wednesday to score Over 0 Goals (8/11 Bet365)

Rochdale v Fleetwood – Over 2.5 Goals (11/10 Marathon)

Oxford v Lincoln – Oxford to win (5/6 Marathon)

About Author

The big cheese at WLB. After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production before setting WeLoveBetting up soon after the 2014 World Cup. With a huge passion for stats, analytics, the EFL and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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