THERE'S a full card of fixtures from the Football League this midweek and Chris Bland (@blandc_1996) is on-hand to pick out his favourite value fancies from Wednesday night.
Nottingham Forest v Hull | Wednesday 23rd October 2019, 19:45
Nottingham Forest fell to their first defeat since the opening day away at Wigan on Sunday, however there were still positive signs for Sabri Lamouchi’s men, and they are well placed to bounce back against a struggling Hull side sat in 19th here.
Looking for a third consecutive home win, Lamouchi will still be without influential midfielder Samba Sow through injury. Despite going down at the DW, Forest created more than enough chances to win, managing an Expected Goals (xG) output of 1.37, and were caught napping out of shape for the decisive goal, in a game where their defence were rarely threatened otherwise.
The Joe Lolley and Matty Cash partnership down the wing is one of the best in the league, and will fancy their chances of exploiting the left side of Hull’s defence, an area where the Tigers have struggled this season.
Hull also showed their vulnerability to the counter-attack in defeat to QPR on Saturday, and this is another area where Forest thrive upon, and will look to exploit, particularly through Lolley and Sammy Ameobi.
Although Hull do pose a threat going forward, particularly through Jarrod Bowen, their defensive issues are outweighing their attacking threat currently, and coming up against a side who have creativity in abundance and a proven goal scorer in Lewis Grabban, it is hard to see them shutting out the opposition for the 90 minutes.
Forest’s defence has been in excellent form this season as well, and only conceding 0.80 goals per-game making for further promising reading for Lamouchi’s side.
Strikers Josh Magennis and Tom Eaves have only mustered two goals between them for Hull, with most goals coming through Bowen and Kamil Grosicki (4), so if they can be stopped, Forest will go a long way to thwarting Hull’s attacking threat.
Best priced at 1/1 (Bet365), Forest to win stands out in this encounter.
Peterborough v Accrington | Wednesday 23rd October 2019, 19:45
Peterborough continue to impress as they dispatched Steve Evans’ Gillingham 2-1 courtesy of a long-range strike from Joe Ward and a penalty from Mo Eisa, moving Posh up to third in League One.
Despite toppling unbeaten Ipswich on Sunday, I still feel Peterborough will have enough to defeat Accrington at home on Wednesday, as the free-scoring hosts should get joy against a direct Accrington side who can at times leave themselves wide open.
John Coleman’s side look to line up 4-4-2, and this will play into the hands of Peterborough’s attacking front three, and in particular Marcus Maddison, arguably the stand out player in the division.
Ipswich’s direct style played into the hands of Accrington on Sunday, but it will be a different proposition on Wednesday, with Peterborough favouring the pace of Ivan Toney and Eisa in the channels, freeing up space in front of the back four for Maddison to exploit.
Accrington’s centre backs Ross Sykes and Mark Hughes are adept at dealing with direct football, but lack the pace to deal with the threat of Eisa and Toney in behind. Potentially being forced to drop off to alleviate that risk, it would free up the creative talent of Maddison in the space behind, who has already racked up six assists and six goals this season.
Scoring 30 goals in 13 league games this season, it is hard to see Posh struggling to breakdown an Accrington side who themselves have conceded 21 goals in 13 league games. Toney and Eisa both have 10 goals apiece, and I am confident that they will be able to come out on top at London Road, especially when considering the space that Accrington’s tactics could afford them.
As a result, Peterborough to win and Over 1.5 Goals stands out at 19/20 (Ladbrokes).