FOOTBALL LEAGUE analyst Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with his best bets from Tuesday night's EFL action.
Wimbledon v Fleetwood | Tuesday 22nd January 2019, 19:45
One of my favourite referees returns on Tuesday night, taking charge of Wimbledon’s contest with Fleetwood at Kingsmeadow and the opportunity to back the visitors to receive 20+ Bookings Points at 8/11 (SkyBet) shouldn’t be ignored.
The Cod Army have covered this line in all bar two of their 14 road trips under Joey Barton’s watch with the Fylde coast club collecting an average of 2.61 cards per-game in 2018/19, a figure that increases to 3.43 when playing away. Those games as guests have seen Fleet average 35.71 Bookings Points.
No League One team has been cautioned as often as Town this term and with Charles Breakspear officiating, I think feisty Fleetwood are worth backing to deliver. Breakspear has admittedly slowed down a touch in recent weeks but he’s still averaging 3.33 yellows this season, dishing out 10 reds and giving 13 penalties in his 30 fixtures.
In fact, go back to the beginning of 2016/17 and across his League One and League Two matches, Breakspear has flashed 348 yellows in 93 games at a rate of 3.74 on average, as well as a whopping 32 reds. Yes, he’s sending a player off every 2.91 games!
I’d normally be keen to oppose Wimbledon cards here – they’ve seen fewer than 20 Bookings Points in 11 of their 14 as hosts, averaging only 1.14 cards per-game overall (0.79 at Kingsmeadow) but it’s not worth the risk with this loon in charge.
The red card is available around the 4/1 (SkyBet) if that’s your jam and Fleetwood are 11/10 to pick up the most Bookings Points but I’m happy enough with a solid single on the Cod Army collecting on their own this midweek. This selection will land if Fleet pick up at least two yellow cards, or a just a straight red.
If you’re new to Bookings Points, a yellow card is awarded 10 Bookings Points, with a red receiving 25 Bookings Points. Should a player pick up two bookings and a subsequent red, 35 Bookings Points are given. So this selection is essentially looking for Fleetwood to pick up two yellow cards, or a straight red to pay-out.
Wimbledon v Fleetwood – Fleetwood to receive 20+ Bookings Points (8/11 SkyBet)