FOOTBALL LEAGUE fan James Potter (@thebettingdesk) oversees Tuesday night's EFL action, picking out his favourite fancies.
Huddersfield vs Bournemouth | Tuesday 13th April 2021, 17:30
I tipped up Bournemouth the score two or more on Saturday and they promptly scored four when Coventry came to town and I am going to get them onside again on Tuesday night. The Cherries travel to Huddersfield this time and the Terriers are struggling with a recent record of W2-D7-L9 within this run they have lost 7-0 at Norwich and 3-2 against Wycombe.
The Terriers are slightly better at home, but they have now not won at home since late December and have scored just two goals in their last four home games. They had a big game on Saturday against Rotherham. They weren’t great the xG and conceding 12 shots and 3 on target in a game where they were a little lucky to grab a point.
Defeat in that game would have seen them dragged back into the relegation scrap however that point has probably has just about made them safe as they are now 19th, eight points above Rotherham in 22nd with six games to play. It will take a number of big results to see them slip into League One and I think that will play into our hands here.
I have them 19th on home expected points, 12th on home points per game and 18th for xG ratio
I will go back to my statement on Bournemouth last weekend. I am surprised how well Jonathan Woodgate as done. He has so far proved me wrong, and the Cherries look good. It’s now W8-D2-L3 under his stewardship winning the last four with an aggregate score of 12-2.
The Cherries away record under the former Real Madrid defender has also been pretty strong ahead of their visit to West Yorkshire, losing just once on the road during in his two-month tenure.
They have only failed to score once in his 13 games, and they have players like Solanke, Danjuma, Brooks, Billing, Lerma, Wilshere, Long and now they welcome back Stanislas it’s a squad full of quality and should have far too much for a poor Terriers side.
Having Stanislas fit is really important to their run in. Speaking this week Woodgate said “Junior Stanislas is back, that’s great for us. He’s been fantastic for us this season so we’re looking forward to getting him back. He’s scored goals for us and assisted others. “We have no other concerns, everyone’s back now and I’m really pleased, Junior’s a valuable member of the squad and he’s done fantastically well.”
I have the Cherries 6th in my away rankings, 6th on away expected points and 6th for xG ratio.
26 points have come from 13 games under Woodgate and normally two points a game should see your finish in and around the top four in the championship and I think Woodgate will steer the Cherries into the play offs and the need a win here as they face Norwich at the weekend and sit just two points ahead of 7th placed Reading.
I am going to back Bournemouth to win the game at 23/25 with Unibet.
Blackpool vs Accrington | Tuesday 13th April 2021, 19:00
Blackpool are finally looking like the side a few shrewd punters predicted at the start of the season. A very poor start where they went W2-W1-L6 set the alarm bells ringing but they have slowly picked up form and results.
They are now unbeaten in 14 League One games, losing just twice in 2021, which both came on the road, at Ipswich when the Tractors boys put in probably their best performance of the season and then at Bristol Rovers, where despite generating a xG of 2.33 winning the shot count 18 vs 9 and shot on target count 5 vs 4 they lost 2-1.
The Seasiders picked up 8 wins and 6 draws since February and fast becoming one of the favourites to qualify for play-off this season. At home their record is impressive with W9-D6-L3, with defeats all coming at the hands of sides in the top 8.
When welcoming sides outside of the top 8 the record is even more impressive with W6-D5-L0. The underlying performance metrics backs up their results as they sit 4th for xG ratio, 7th for expected home points and 4th for home points per game. They are unbeaten in the league at Bloomfield Road since the 20th October – 13 games – and have a striker in-form in Jerry Yates, who has 20 goals and five assists.
They drew 2-2 last time out despite coasting for most of the game being completely dominate at Lincoln. They managed 17 shots, seven on target and won the xG 2.06 vs 1.07.
Blackpool manager, Neil Critchley that there is “no fresh injuries to report, so the squad will remain very similar to Saturday.”
Accrington are 12th in the table, they are also in the mix for qualification with the gap with top six being six points. However, there is a stark contrast in form between the teams.
Over the last 15 games Stanley have a record of W3-D5-L8. Wins have been over Doncaster, also in awful form with W2-D3-L10, Swindon who sit 23rd, Wigan 21st and Oxford W2-D0-L4. Over the last 10 league games only 3 sides have collected fewer points than Stanley with just 11 points.
Recently they have lost 7-0 to Peterborough, 4-1 to Bristol Rovers and on Saturday they lost to Wimbledon 5-1. Stanley manager, John Coleman admitted Stanley’s defensive display was “alarming”. He has been saying that this season has been a good for his team regardless of where they finish, and he can’t wait for next season.
This sounds like the comments of a manager who wants the season over with and that will not be lost on the players.
Blackpool home games tend to see lots of goals with six of the last seven seeing both teams finding the net. Accrington did put up a sound display after their 7-0 humiliation to Peterborough, but I can’t see them stopping Blackpool and I am happy to get them onside to score 2 or more goals at 10/11 with Betway.
Doncaster vs Burton | Tuesday 13th April 2021, 19:00
I am going to stay in League One for the next game and take Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Burton to get something when they travel to Doncaster. We have two sides going in opposition directions and Hasselbaink has turned it around for Burton. In his second spell with the club, he has steered them clear of the relegation zone with a record of W11-D2-L5 with eight wins in their last 12 games.
Before Hasselbaink arrived, Burton had claimed just 13 points but now sit on 48. It’s a remarkable turnaround and one that had he been with the club over the course of the season you have to consider that they may have been in with a shout of the play offs!
However, of the 35 points recorded under Hasselbaink just 12 have come at home with a record of W4-D0-L5. It’s on the road where they have been so impressive with a record of W7-D2-L0 keeping six clean sheets.
Burton are averaging 2.55 points per away game and whilst this is over a short sample this is the most by any side over the same period. Hull have the best away record in the League One and they average 1.90 over the season and 1.88 over this nine-game sample. It’s very impressive.
With their last away defeat coming in Boxing Day, they are in a good place to take on a Doncaster side that are now in real danger of missing out of the play offs.
Just 10 games ago Doncaster were on 48 points, 5th in the league table and just four points off the top of the table. The then manager Darren Moore decided that Sheffield Wednesday were a better prospect and jumped ship and Andy Butler was appointed until the end of the season and things have not gone well.
Butler has overseen W2-D2-L6 and both wins were in his opening two games. Yet, it would be unfair to suggest that the poor run started under Butler. The last five games under Moore saw them W0-D1-L4, which puts their current run as W2-D3-L10. They now sit 10th six points outside the play offs and now 22 points off the top of the table. As much as Burton’s form is remarkable as is Doncaster’s.
Over the last 15 games they have managed just eight points and across the country in the top four divisions only Blackburn with eight points have fewer than Doncaster. Alongside this poor form Doncaster have a number of injuries and all the pressure is on them whilst Burton, in good form and are looking to finish the season strongly.
We can take Burton at 41/40 with Bet365 on 0.0AH. This means that the only way we lose money if Doncaster claim a 3rd win in 15 games. If the game ends in a draw, we get our money back with us making profit if Burton continue their excellent away record.
Best Bets
Huddersfield vs Bournemouth – Bournemouth to win (23/25 Unibet)
Blackpool vs Accrington – Blackpool to score Over 1.5 Goals (10/11 Betway)
Doncaster vs Burton – Burton +0 Asian Handicap (41/40 Bet365)
