TOM LOVE (@TomLove_18) has perused the markets ahead of Super Sunday's match-up between Everton and Chelsea at Goodison Park.
Everton v Chelsea | Sunday 17th March 2019, 16:30 | Sky Sports
Chelsea have the opportunity to go level on points with Arsenal in fourth in the Premier League should they collect all three points at Goodison Park onSunday. It would also put the Blues within one point of Spurs in third; therefore it’s a pivotal game for Maurizio Sarri in the race for a top four finish.
The Blues demolished Dynamo Kiev 5-0 in Ukraine in midweek, which shows you what they can do. Olivier Giroud lead the line superbly, bagging himself a hat-trick in that fixture. The Frenchman could start again here given Gonzalo Higuain’s illness.
It’s been a mystery, to me, why the World Cup winner has not been involved more frequently in the Premier League. He’s a perfect foil for Chelsea’s array off attacking midfielders and wingers, as well as being a nuisance in the box.
On the contrary, Everton are a strange old team. They’ve been very difficult to get a handle on all season and it seems like a mentality thing, to me. They were well set up against Liverpool recently and Marco Silva received praise for his game-plan – it’s just a shame that he can’t replicate that week-in, week-out.
It’s hard to have faith in the Toffees from a punting perspective; their overall form isn’t great with a W1-D1-L4 return from their last six. Throw in their poor record against Chelsea and it’s even harder to get the hosts onside. The Merseyside outfit have failed to win in six against the capital club, failing to score in five.
The Ev are not a good thing on home soil either, with just one win in their last eight at Goodison. Silva also has a poor record against the Big Six also, failing to win in his last 12 meetings against the Premier League’s big guns.
The money has come for the away side in the last few days and I can understand why, Chelsea are in to 20/23 (Betfair) which is probably just about backable. Chelsea are ranked third on the Expected Goals metric, so they’re creating enough, with overwhelming stats in their favour I’d have to go for them here.
Coleman can collect a card
It would also be amiss to not look into the card markets. As we know, Eden Hazard is one of the most regularly fouled players in the league. He operates chiefly on that left-hand side and it means opposition right backs are vulnerable to a card.
Matt Doherty was the latest to fall foul of the Belgian’s slight movement last week and whoever is directly up against him has to be looked at for a caution.
Seamus Coleman is likely to come back into the fold for Everton at right back here and Bet365 go a bulbous 7/1 that the Irishman picks up a booking. He’s not a regular in this market but I think any right back north of 4/1 is a value price against Hazard.