English football lover Adam Wallis has his say on Sunday’s match between Everton and Bournemouth.
Everton v Bournemouth | Sunday 13th January 2019, 14:15 | Sky Sports
Everton host Bournemouth at Goodison Park on Sunday in what is a mid-table clash. These two teams have the same points currently (27) and both have scored 31 goals, Bournemouth have conceded nine more goals than Everton. Its very difficult to split these teams and that was seen the last time they met as they played out a thrilling 2-2 draw.
The hosts start as 1.77 favourites for this match which surprises me a little as I thought they would be a little nearer even money. They have not won at home in last four, drawing two and losing two. They have taken 18 points from possible 33 from their home matches, W5 D3 L3.
The recent 0-1 loss to Leicester was a little unfair as they created 1.51xG to Leicester’s 0.76xG a draw would have been a true reflection. The 2-6 loss to Spurs was justified as was the two draws with Watford and Newcastle and also the 1-0 win over Cardiff keeping only one clean sheet in five.
The Toffees average 1.41xG at home with their opponent averaging 1.18xG which equates to Everton being priced 2.37 or a 42% probability of winning which is a massive difference to the 1.77 and 56% probability currently on offer. The reason for this difference is because Bournemouth have not performed very well away from home and have not won an EPL game on their travels since beating Fulham in October.
If we look at Bournemouth’s away form W3 D0 L7 but particularly over the last five or since they beat Fulham (last six) they lost 2-1 to Newcastle but they created enough to score at least two goals, maybe three but so did Newcastle with a draw being a better reflection. Their next loss was to Wolves where they didn’t create enough to score and that will be down to Wolves brilliant defensive metrics this season.
Away from those two games they have lost to ‘top six’ opposition in the shape of Manchester City (3-1) Tottenham (5-0) and Manchester United (4-1) The losses to the Manchester teams were fair results as they failed to create enough to warrant a share of the points. The 5-0 loss to Tottenham flattered the home side with Bournemouth creating 1.19xG to Spurs 1.87xG Bournemouth average 1.34xG and 1.70xGA away from home which would see them priced 3.30 or 30% probability of winning compared to the current price of 4.77 or 21%
Even though the league table suggests that these two teams are equal I think Everton, based on quality created and home form are the better team here. You could make the case for Bournemouth having faced three top six teams in their last five away matches but again I couldn’t be confident enough. Both these teams score and concede so the obvious way to go would be goals and with the line set at 2.75 the market expects goals too. Both teams to score is very low at 1.66 as expected and Over 2.5 is also around 1.66.
I am going to split my stake here and look to the Correct Score market. I am backing 2-1, 3-1 in
favour of Everton here as I cannot see Bournemouth getting anything out the game.