MARK O'HAIRE'S (@MarkOHaire) bagged nine European NAP winners from his last 12 selections. His latest arrives from Austria on Saturday.
St Polten v Mattersburg | Saturday 17:30
It’s a treacherous weekend of punting on the continent with artificially short prices around every corner and sides with little else to play for stinking the house out.
So in such situations we must venture outside the ordinary and I’m heading back to a league I’ve monitored closely this season, Austria’s Bundesliga.
It’s a division that’s already delivered us a goals-based winner this season and I reckon I’ve unearthed another gem from the land that’s given us The Sound Of Music, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Mozart.
On Saturday evening St Polten welcome Mattersburg to the compact NV Arena knowing a positive result is paramount if they’re to beat the drop. The hosts sit just one point above rock-bottom with four games to play and visitors Mattersburg are only five points better off.
The pair are essentially battling against relegation so it’s a high-stakes game featuring two clubs that have had terrible trouble keeping their sheets clean all season.
Remarkable, St Polten have shutout just one of their 32 opponents this term with their home fixtures averaging a huge 3.38 goals per-game. Over 2.5 Goals has landed on 12 occasions with Both Teams To Score paying out in 13 matches.
Mattersburg have only managed to silence five sides themselves with their away games also proving profitable for goals backers – 10 have crossed the Over 2.5 Goals with encounters averaging 2.82 goals per-game.
It means collectively, these two clubs have accrued just 3/32 (9%) home/away clean sheets whilst delivering 21/32 (66%) successful BTTS bets and 22/32 (69%) Over 2.5 Goals winners. The average goals per-game across those 32 matches is a healthy 3.10.
The betting angle
Just like its German counterpart, the Austrian Bundesliga has been a feature of goal-heavy games and I’m happy to follow the stats on this one by backing Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at a wonderfully attractive 23/20 (Coral).
All available team news is favourable and the state of both teams’ backlines should give us a great chance of landing a pay-out.
St Polten v Mattersburg – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (23/20 Coral)