European NAP: Rossoneri to keep Champions League dreams alive

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EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) is heading to Italy for his next best bet from the continent.

Milan v Frosinone | Sunday 19th May 2019, 17:00 | Premier Sports

Milan’s hopes of a top four finish in Serie A and Champions League qualification remains possible after the Rossoneri crept past Fiorentina last weekend. Hakan Calhanoglu’s glancing header proved decisive in Florence to keep Gennaro Gattuso’s group within three points with two very winnable games to round off the campaign.

With Atalanta travelling to Turin to face Juventus immediately after this encounter, Milan will be hoping to collect maximum points at home to already-relegated Frosinone and pile the pressure on the Bergamo outfit ahead of next weekend’s final fixtures. Realistically, their form since the Derby della Madonnina defeat in March could prove insurmountable.

Nevertheless, the Rossoneri will undoubtedly give it a good go. The host have registered only three triumphs in 10 across all competitions, although back-to-back victories over Bologna and Fiorentina have lifted the mood around San Siro. Gattuso’s troops have also shown consistency when welcoming the lesser lights to their Milan base.

Under Gattuso’s watch, AC have W18-D7-L5 at San Siro in Serie A action with W11-D2-L1 recorded against clubs outside the current top four this term. The Rossoneri have W13-D1-L1 when hosting clubs in 13th and below since the start of last season and are understandably short-priced favourites to succeed again on Sunday.

Frosinone to come up short

Frosinone are on their way back down to Serie B after suffering from a dreadful opening stanza. The guests picked up a sole point from their opening eight encounters and had table a solitary victory before Christmas. The Canarini have found things tough against the top-flight elite too, pocketing a single point in 15 games against the top-eight (W0-D1-L14).

Marco Baroni’s men have managed a league-low 0.45 Expected Goals (xG) from open play on average and posted an xG ratio on the road below the 30% mark. The strugglers have W2-D2-L9 since mid-February but only the very first game in this sequence away at Juventus saw Frosinone go down by more than two clear goals and they’re unlikely to be blown away.

Only Torino have scored fewer goals than Milan in the top half of the table and only three of the Rossoneri’s 17 victories have arrived by three goals or more. Eleven clubs average a better xG figure than Gattuso’s men and nine teams have bettered their xG from open play returns in 2018/19, adding further credence to the case this might not be a whitewash.

The betting angle

Therefore, I’m happy dipping into the Bet Builder facility from Bet365 to support a Milan win, Under 5 Goals and Frosinone to receive Over 1 Card for a 20/21 play.

I’ve already made the obvious case for a home success, whilst fewer than five goals have been scored in 62/72 (86%) of their combined games. Dipping down to their respective home/away matches and 26/36 (72%) combined contests produced Under 3.5 Goals with the xG average hitting 2.40 and actual goals per-game sitting at 2.50 in the same sample.

Finally, Frosinone average 2.89 cards per-game, which rises to 3.39 on the road – the second-highest figure in Serie A. The Canarini have picked up at least 20 Bookings Points in all bar four games as guests and are unlikely to relish a final outing at the San Siro.

Best Bets

Milan v Frosinone – Milan to win, Under 5 Goals, Frosinone to receive Over 1 Card (20/21 Bet365)

About Author

After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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