MARK O'HAIRE'S (@MarkOHaire) is taking a first trip to Greece as he chases another European NAP winner this weekend.
Larisa v Lamia | Saturday 5th May 2018, 17:00
I don’t often venture away from my tried-and-trusted leagues. As well as the top four tiers in England, I keep a very close eye on the Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 – it has to take something special to drag me away from those eight divisions on any given day.
This weekend – the final round of Greek Super League action – is the first such occasion this season that I’ve spotted something that looks a little too good to turn down. Yes, it’s the titanic tussle between two mid to lower-ranked teams that stands out on Sunday.
I’ve spent a good few hours doing my homework here. I’m not going to profess to be an expert on Greek football but I’ve done enough research to reassure myself that I’m onto something decent so I’ll let my homework speak for itself and say no more.
I’m backing Under 2.5 Goals at 17/20 with Bet365 – best of luck if you’re all onboard and let me know on Twitter if you follow suit!
- Larisa’s league matches have averaged 2.10 goals per-game with 18/29 (62%) featuring Under 2.5 Goals and 13/29 (45%) producing Under 1.5 Goals.
- Larisa’s home games average just 1.43 goals per-game – 12/14 (86%) featured Under 2.5 Goals and 9/15 (64%) produced Under 1.5 Goals profit with four ending 0-0.
- Larisa have kept 11/29 (38%) clean sheets but failed to score on 12 (41%) occasions.
- Larisa average just 7.66 shots per-game with only 2.66 arriving from inside the penalty area.
- Lamia’s league matches have averaged 1.79 goals per-game with 23/29 (79%) featuring Under 2.5 Goals and 11/29 (38%) producing Under 1.5 Goals.
- Larisa’s away games average just 1.86 goals per-game – 10/14 (71%) featured Under 2.5 Goals and 5/14 (36%) produced Under 1.5 Goals profit with three ending 0-0.
- Lamia have kept 7/29 (24%) clean sheets but failed to score on 16 (59%) occasions.
- Lamia average just 7.14 shots per-game (a league low) with only 2.03 arriving from inside the penalty area (another league low).
Collectively, the pair have scored just 40 goals in 58 league matches with home/away games averaging 1.65 goals per-game.
In those home/away dates, our Under 2.5 Goals selection has paid out on 22/28 (79%) occasions.
Larisa v Lamia – Under 2.5 Goals (17/20 Bet365)