European NAP: Champions-to-be can conquer in the capital

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EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) is heading to Denmark for his next best bet from the continent.

FC Copenhagen v OB Odense | Sunday 28th April 2019, 17:00

Victory for FC Copenhagen on Sunday evening will almost certainly secure the Danish giants a 13th league title. The capital club are 11 points clear of defending champions Midtjylland – who them convincingly beat 3-0 at their Parken Stadium home just 10 days ago – with only five fixtures to play.

FCK are still under the stewardship of Stale Solbakken and the former Wolves boss is determined to clinch top honours – his seventh crown in Copenhagen coaching colours – as early as possible. After a few hiccups in Autumn, his team have really come to the fore since October, returning a marvellous W18-D3-L0 in domestic league outings.

Copenhagen were beaten in their league opener at the Parken way back in mid-July but their return of W13-D1-L0 here since is testament to their ability to get the job done as hosts. In fact, in 100 home league encounters under Solbakken, FCK have taken maximum points on 75 occasions, 44 of which arrived by a margin of two goals or more.

FCK to conquer in Copenhagen again

Naturally, Copenhagen are too short to support in the pre-match 1×2 market but we can get behind the table-toppers at generous 10/11 (Paddy Power) quotes by adding Over 1.5 Goals into the mix. This selection would see us return profit should FCK pick up another home victory by any scoreline other than 1-0.

Solbakken’s men have seen all bar four of their 33 fixtures since the beginning of last season at the Parken feature at least two goals. And only two of their 24 triumphs in that time saw the 1-0 correct score land – in other words, this play has landed in 22/33 (67%) of Copenhagen’s contests here since 2017/18.

The hosts have generated a +30 goal difference in front of their home supporters in just 15 fixtures this season, averaging 2.10 Expected Goals (xG). They should prove far too strong for an Odense side that’s picked up only three points from their last five outings (W0-D3-L2).

OB to come up short

OB have already been beaten at FCK (6-1) and Midtjylland (3-0 and 2-0) and the visitors fired blanks in both games against third-placed Esbjerg (0-0 and 2-0). Most importantly, 12/16 (75%) of De Stribede’s away days have produced at least two goals with Jakob Michelsen’s men suffering only one of their seven losses on the road by a 1-0 scoreline.

Odense give up 1.63 goals per-game on average when playing away, leaking 16 goals in their most recent eight encounters. The visitors are unlikely to be able to cope with the champions-to-be on Sunday.

Best Bets

FC Copenhagen v OB Odense – FC Copenhagen to win and Over 1.5 Goals (10/11 Paddy Power)

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About Author

After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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