European NAP: Capital gains for Old Lady

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EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) is heading to Italy on Sunday night for his next best bet from across the continent.

Lazio v Juventus | Sunday 27th January 2019, 19:30 | Eleven Sports

Juventus barely slipped out of first gear as they strolled to a cruisy 3-0 success over rock-bottom Chievo on Monday night and the Old Lady can enhance their phenomenal 2018/19 Serie A record with victory on Monday night in the Italian capital.

The Bianconeri boast an unblemished W18-D2-L0 return from their first 20 league outings this term, a sample that includes triumphs in all five meetings with top-six rivals. Max Allegri’s men are already nine points clear of the pack and are heading towards an eight consecutive Serie A crown.

Juve’s Monday night success came despite Cristiano Ronaldo missing a penalty, and second-top scorer Mario Mandzukic joining Miralem Pjanic and Sami Khedira on the treatment table. It was only the fifth time in the league this season that the Turin giants had scored three or more goals but their dominance of the division is unquestionable.

The Old Lady are enjoying a 77% Expected Goals from open play ratio – giving up just 0.30 xG from open play per-game – whilst the all-conquering table-toppers are conceded just four attempts from inside the penalty area on average per-game. So it’s no surprise to see Juventus have conceded only 11 Serie A goals across the campaign as a whole.

On paper, Sunday night’s trip to Rome could be considered trappy but Juve have made light work of Lazio in recent seasons. The Bianconeri have won nine of their last 11 encounters with the capital club – silencing the Biancocelesti on nine occasions – as well as winning on each of their last five visits to the Stadio Olimpico across all competitions.

Lazio lost at Napoli last time out 2-1. The Biancocelesti saw their woodwork hit four times in that fixture as they fell to another reverse against the elite in Serie A. Remarkably, the Eagles have now come away empty-handed in 10 of 13 winless meetings with top-six teams of late, including five of six such showdowns in 2018/19.

Simone Inzaghi’s side have been beaten in five of seven such fixtures with Italy’s leading lights here, and have recently fallen out of the top-four following a W2-D5-L2 return from their most recent nine outings. What’s more, Lazio will be without centre-half mainstay Francesco Acerbi, and with Luiz Felipe also unavailable, options are limited in defence.

The hosts convincingly trail behind Juve in the majority of major performance data markers and are easily opposed at the prices. Therefore, supporting Juventus to win at 10/11 (Bet365) is my European NAP this weekend.

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Lazio v Juventus – Juventus to win (10/11 Bet365)

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About Author

After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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