EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) heads to Denmark on Sunday for his latest best bet on the continent.
FC Copenhagen v Horsens | Sunday 8th March 2020, 15:00
FC Copenhagen’s title defence hasn’t gone hugely to plan this season. The Danish giants trail Midtjylland by nine points and Stale Solbakken’s side were dumped out of the domestic cup in midweek after making widespread changes to their starting XI in Aarhus.
Nevertheless, FCK are readying themselves for Europa League Last 16 competition next week after ousting Celtic and the capital club can get back on the winning trail on Sunday when Horsens visit Parken Stadium. It’s here with Copenhagen have proven expert operators and it’s difficult to see the hosts falling short as strong pre-match favourites.
Since the start of last season, FCK have tabled W25-D2-L2 at Parken, as well as W10-D1-L0 here this season in Superliga action. Solbakken’s troops have scored at least twice in 24 of those 29 tussles with all bar two of those matches featuring at least two goals – Copenhagen covered the -1 handicap in 52% of those fixtures with 59% delivering in the HT-FT market.
I’m keen to combine a couple of those trends together and back FCK to beat Horsens alongside Over 1.5 Goals at 8/11 (Betway). Expect the hosts to monopolise possession and create enough opportunities to make their dominance pay; FCK are generating an average of 1.80 Expected Goals here in Superliga action, enjoying a 63% xG ratio share.
Horsens are a bang average outfit that are well-versed in mid-table obscurity since returning to the top-tier. The visitors were fortunate to escape relegation last term and again slumped towards the bottom end of the table this time around despite yet visiting either Midtjylland or Copenhagen with both contests coming in the next fortnight.
The Yellow Danger – as Horsens are known – have returned from the winter break with three defeats from three, shipping two goals or more in each – including a 6-0 shellacking at Nordsjaelland – and boast a 52% loss rate on the road since the beginning of 2018/19. The guests away returns have been far from convincing when viewing this season alone too.
Horsens have conceded 40 shots on-target in their past six away days – giving up 2.75 Expected Goals (xG) in three of those fixtures – and have leaked 1.91 goals per-game on average outside of their Jutland home. The visitors have also seen Over 1.5 Goals land in nine of their past 19 Superliga showdowns either side of the winter break.
FC Copenhagen v Horsens – FC Copenhagen to win and Over 1.5 Goals (8/11 Coral)